FX.co ★ Analysis of GBP/USD on April 27. Fed may start the reduction of its bond buying program in the Q4 2021

The quotes of the pound/dollar pair continue to leave the reached highs last week, and it still does not fit well into the internal wave structure of the expected wave 3 or C. Thus, it can be assumed that the instrument has done building the three-wave upward wave structure and has now begun to build a new three-wave downward wave structure. If this assumption is correct, then the quotes' decline will continue with the targets located around the 36th mark or so. However, there are also alternative options that can be considered, which involves the resumption of the increase in the quotes of the instrument. For example, the option in which the last downward trend section took the form a-b-c-d-e and completed its construction on April 9. So, the instrument is in the stage of forming a correction wave 2 or b, after which the growth will resume within the third wave. Thus, the wave pattern is still not completely unclear.

There was no news background for the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday, since no important reports were released during the day. Thus, the markets can only fully focus on the results of the Fed meeting, which will be announced on Wednesday evening. Markets do not expect much from this event, as the main parameters of monetary policy are likely to remain unchanged. Therefore, they will pay more attention to the press conference with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Here, they believe that there are possible options. The simplest option is that Jerome Powell will not change his previous rhetoric and repeat all the theses that the markets already know by heart. It can be recalled that the last speeches of Powell were held under the proclamation of the need to continue to help the US economy. However, many economists believe that the Fed will begin to reduce the volume of bond purchases in the 4th quarter of 2020, which currently amount to $ 120 billion per month. Bloomberg conducted a corresponding opinion poll, which showed exactly these results. The majority of economists surveyed believe that the Fed will reduce the volume of the QE program, as the US economy is recovering at a high pace, and inflation rose to 2.6% yoy last month and may continue to grow in the near future. Most experts also agree that the Fed will not rush to wind down the QE program, as it wants to see stable and stable data indicating the good state of the US economy. Thus, the 4th quarter is probably the minimum date when the QE program can be wound down. The question is, will Jerome Powell announce this?

At this time, the wave pattern has slightly cleared up, so it is now suggested to sell the instrument for each MACD downward signal, counting on the formation of a new three downward waves. However, the wave pattern still does not look fully clear and may still require some additions and adjustments.

The part of the trend, which originated on September 23, has taken on a five-wave fully completed form. Thus, this section of the trend is presumably completed, and the section of the trend after it can take either the horizontal form of alternating triples. At the same, the three downward waves are already done, and now a new upward section of the trend has begun forming, which will bring the instrument above the peak of the wave 5 in 5. In addition, the option of building a downward pattern a-b-c-d-e, which has been fully done, is not completely excluded, and now a new ascending section is being built.