FX.co ★ Hot forecast for GBP/USD on April 26, 2021

The macroeconomic reports last Friday managed to surprise traders with huge numbers. Retail sales in the United Kingdom were so large that even the market was perplexed by the reality.

Sales growth of 7.2%, in annual terms, is doubtful, despite the fact that sales decreased by -3.6% in the previous month.

The index of business activity in Britain, which was published a little later than retail, was significantly better than the forecast, which supported the British currency in the previously set upward course. Thus, the manufacturing index of business activity rose from 58.9 points to 60.7 points, although it should have fallen to 58.5 points.

The index of business activity in the service sector was supposed to grow from 56.3 points to 59.1 points, but in fact it increased to 60.1 points.

During the American trading session, a similar business activity index was published, but this time it is for the United States, where the manufacturing sector recorded an increase in the index from 59.1 points to 60.6 points. The service sector also saw an increase from 60.4 to 63.1.

The US data supported the dollar, but only at the time of publication of the statistics.

The new trading week begins with the publication of data on the volume of orders for durable goods in the United States for March, where there is an increase of 2.5%, against a decline of -1.2%.

The GBP/USD currency pair showed quite high activity at the end of the last trading week. At first, there was an active downward interest from the level of 1.4000, and then there was a reversal just in the period of Friday. The price point of 1.3825 is used as a variable reference point.

The market dynamics, with the exception of Friday, had a high level. This is confirmed by the growth of speculative operations, and in turn by impulse candles in the market.

If we proceed from the current location of the quote, we can see the movement of the quote in an ascending cycle, where there is a slight slowdown.

Looking at the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, the price rebound from the psychological level of 1.4000 is visible. In case of a breakdown of this coordinate, sellers will no longer have a chance, and buyers will again be able to update the local maximum of the medium-term trend.

In this situation, it is worth paying attention to the current quote, since the fleeting stagnation that we have now coincides with the area of the reversal of April 6* (see the trading chart below*).

In the case of a repetition of the natural basis of the past, there may be a reduction in the volume of long positions, and this in turn will lead to a rebound in the direction of 1.3830.

An alternative scenario of the market development will be considered by traders in the event of price holdings above 1.3920, which will open the way in the direction of 1.3950-1.4000.

From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, it can be seen that technical instruments on the hourly and daily periods give a buy signal due to the ascending cycle, while minute intervals signal selling due to the deceleration stage.