FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on April 15. COT report. Christine Lagarde: The EU economy is still standing on "two crutches"

EUR/USD – 1H.

The EUR/USD pair resumed the growth process during the last trading day and worked out the corrective level of 100.0% (1.1989). The rebound of quotes from this Fibo level will work in favor of the US currency and some fall in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1922). Closing the pair's rate above the level of 100.0% will work in favor of continuing growth in the direction of the next corrective level of 127.2% (1.2067). The information background during yesterday was rather poor. No economic reports, just speeches by Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell. The ECB chairwoman said that the EU economy is still very far from full recovery and is now standing on its feet only with the help of crutches in the form of monetary and fiscal stimulus. "If they are removed, then everything will immediately collapse", says Lagarde. The head of the ECB said that the economy will have to be supported for a long period, as any new shock can again lead to its fall to its knees. However, traders can see for themselves what is happening in the European Union. Indeed, any new blow can lead to a new drop in GDP. At the moment, the third wave of coronavirus is raging in Europe, and there are still not enough vaccines. Thus, the GDP of the Eurozone in the second quarter of 2021 may again contract instead of recovering. Or the growth will be minimal. The European Commission and the ECB do not expect a full recovery until the middle of next year. But even such forecasts now look too optimistic.

EUR/USD – 4H.

On the 4-hour chart, after rebounding from the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.1729), the pair's quotes continue to grow in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). A bearish divergence is brewing in the MACD indicator, which may allow us to count on a slight drop in quotes. The rebound of quotes from the level of 161.8% may also work in favor of the beginning of the fall.

EUR/USD – Daily.

On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair consolidated above the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1822). Thus, the further fall of the pair is canceled for the time being, and instead, it can continue to grow in the direction of the Fibo level of 323.6% (1.2080). The rebound of quotes from the trend line will allow us to count on a new reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop in the direction of the level of 261.8%.

EUR/USD – Weekly.

On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has consolidated above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.

Overview of fundamentals:

On April 14, the European Union and the United States hosted speeches by Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell, however, traders did not attach much importance to them.

News calendar for the United States and the European Union:

US - change in retail trade volume (12:30 UTC).

US - number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 UTC).

US - change in industrial production (13:15 UTC).

On April 15, in America, several economic reports will be published that deserve the attention of traders.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

Last Friday, another COT report was released, which turned out to be quite neutral this time. During the reporting week, Non-commercial traders closed 7,679 long contracts and 6,702 short contracts. Thus, the mood of speculators for the reporting week almost did not change. In total, in recent weeks, speculators have been getting rid of long contracts more and at the same time increasing short contracts. Thus, in general, their mood becomes more "bearish". Consequently, the COT reports allow us to conclude the possible continuation of the fall in quotes, however, the total number of long contracts focused on the hands of large players remains higher than the total number of short contracts. That is, the upward trend is not yet complete.

EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:

I recommend selling the pair if there is a rebound from the level of 161.8% (1.2027) on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.1922 and 1.1881. Purchases of the pair were recommended with a target of 1.1989 at the close above the level of 76.4% (1.1922) on the hourly chart. This goal has been achieved. Now you can buy at a close above 1.1989 with targets of 1.2027 and 1.2067.

Terms:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.