FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on April 15, 2021

EUR/USD

The euro's growth from yesterday, since the dollar weakened, correlated with the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in the economic club in Washington, where he spoke about the practice of reducing purchases of government bonds before raising rates. But the euro showed most of yesterday's growth even before Powell's speech, and his thesis itself did not make it clear exactly when the Fed would start to reduce its balance sheet.

Yields on government bonds slightly grew: from 0.84% to 0.86% for 5-year bonds, from 1.62% to 1.63% for 10-year bonds. Perhaps there was a correction in bond yields, which caused the euro to strengthen in recent days. There is still no strict correlation between the dynamics of the euro and yields, the growth was caused, rather, by the loss of investment interest in the dollar, because the euro's growth in April took place at the lowest volumes over the past 12 months. Investment growth against the dollar will increase in the new cycle of attracting capital under the "Biden plan" and the aggravation of the geopolitical situation. The placement of bonds under the Biden plan will begin next week (announcements of the auctions have not yet been published).

On the daily chart, the price reached a strong resistance - the coincidence of the 1.1990 level and the MACD indicator line. The Marlin oscillator has outlined a reversal, albeit not from the overbought zone, but with a fairly high value. A correction from current prices can be expected.

A price divergence with the Marlin oscillator has formed on the four-hour chart. If the euro continues to grow in the medium term, then we expect a correction to the MACD line in the 1.1990 area. If the euro turns into a new medium-term decline, then the price should settle below this MACD line.