FX.co ★ Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD for May 18, 2022

EUR/USD has moved deeper than expected. Nevertheless, the low of wave 2 at 1.0340 has not been eclipsed adding confidence in our long-term bullish count that circle wave 3 is just starting for the next impulsive rally higher to at least 1.8147. It may move closer to the extension target at 2.2972.

In the short term, we need to see minor resistance at 1.0642 to confirm that circle wave 2 has been completed and circle wave 3 is in motion.

You might ask what could bring the US dollar from the present 1.0529 to 2.2972? Our best guess will be a loss in confidence for the US to be able to handle the inflation pressure, which will force large quantities of bonds back to the US.