FX.co ★ Rise or fall? COVID-19 or reduced inventory? The oil market chooses its future direction

According to trading data, on Friday morning, world oil prices show multidirectional dynamics amid uncertainty on demand associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Investors are particularly concerned about the situation in the Asian region.

As a result, the price of June futures for Brent North Sea crude oil on the London ICE Futures Exchange fell by 0.11%, to $63.13 per barrel. At the close of Thursday's session, these contracts rose in price by 0.1%, to $63.2 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the price of May futures for WTI crude oil in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) increased by 0.12%, to $59.67 per barrel. A day earlier, the price of these contracts sank by 0.3%, to $59.6 per barrel.

The increase in the growth rate of coronavirus infections in Asia causes concern among market participants about the prospects for the recovery of the region's economy and the demand for black gold. The most frightening situation today is observed in India – the largest oil-importing state. According to the latest data, about 13 million cases of coronavirus infection were registered in the country.

Another overwhelming factor for the oil market was global market optimism amid expectations of a global economic recovery and a way out of the post-pandemic crisis. The uncontrolled euphoria of investors was caused by internal statistics on the permanent growth of the economies of the United States and Europe.

After analyzing the combination of these factors, experts said that the signals of the black gold market are still quite ambiguous. Despite the fact that the level of COVID-19 infections and the introduction of new lockdowns significantly alarm investors, the global oil market is experiencing a steady decline in raw material reserves.

Meanwhile, in an interview with Bloomberg on Friday, Saudi Oil Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman stressed that he fully supports the latest OPEC decision to increase oil production.

Earlier this month, the member states of the alliance agreed to increase the production of black gold in May by 350,000 barrels per day, a similar amount was planned for June and 440,000 - for July. As a result, according to the preliminary scenarios of OPEC, in May-July, the organization plans to reach such production levels that were already envisaged from January. At the same time, Saudi Arabia will return to the market with 1 million barrels per day of its own oil, the production of which was voluntarily limited.

At the end of his interview, Abdulaziz bin Salman added that, in the event of a deterioration in the situation on the commodity market, OPEC+ and its participants will be able to quickly review the decisions taken earlier, since the current agreement includes a mechanism for increasing, freezing, and reducing production.