FX.co ★ Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on April 9, 2021

In yesterday's trading, the US dollar fell significantly against the single European currency. This was due to several factors, among which the technical component played a key role. But first, let's talk about events and macroeconomic indicators. As noted in yesterday's EUR/USD survey, the main event of Thursday was the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve System (Fed) Jerome Powell. In his speech yesterday, the head of the Federal Reserve noted that the economic recovery in the United States is not yet happening at a completely uniform and complete pace. At the same time, Powell raised hopes that we will see a full economic recovery very soon. At the same time, there are risks, among which the chairman of the Federal Reserve called the main increase in the number of infected COVID-19. Powell also noted that after the pandemic, the global economy will be somewhat different than before the outbreak.

This is quite natural, and it is quite difficult to argue with this statement. Because of COVID-19, the world has already become different, and the economic component cannot stand alone. Jerome Powell also made it clear that once real economic progress is made, the Fed will reduce its asset purchases. Only when this most real progress will take place — history and the main American banker are silent. It is clear that this still requires time. As for the labor market, Powell is fairly optimistic about it. Deep falls were avoided, and small ones are gradually leveled due to the acceptance of a two trillion dollar aid package and the right steps of the Fed in its monetary policy. In general, the speech of the head of the Fed was more kept in optimistic tones, however, it could be found (if desired) and notes of negativity in it.

But yesterday's reports on initial applications for unemployment benefits can be considered disappointing. This indicator came out at the value of 744 thousand, although, according to forecasts, it should have been only 680 thousand, and, of course, it turned out to be in the red zone. Today, I recommend paying attention to the macroeconomic statistics from the United States on the producer price index, which will be published at 13:30 London time.

Daily

Now it's time to review the daily price chart and conduct a technical analysis on the main currency pair of the Forex market. I should immediately note that it will be very concise since today is the last day of trading and the market closes the week. Based on this, a more complete debriefing will be held on Monday, taking into account the actual completion of the weekly trading. In the meantime, we have what we have. As noted yesterday, to give the pair a bullish orientation, the euro bulls needed to absorb the "Tombstone" candle for April 7 with growth, while breaking through the strong resistance of sellers at 1.1914. And they almost did it. But almost, as you know, doesn't count. After the pair showed the maximum values at 1.1927, there was a slight pullback down and the trading ended at 1.1912. This is above the important and significant mark of 1.1900 for the market, as well as the level of 38.2 fibo from the decline of 1.2242-1.1703.

However, the main task of the bulls for the euro was not solved — they were not destined to break through the strong resistance of the sellers at 1.1914 yesterday. In general, as expected on Monday, the current five-day trading period had a bullish scenario and the euro/dollar ends this week with growth. It remains to wait for the closing price and then build some trading plans. At the end of the article, the pair is slightly declining, but before the close of trading, there is still enough time for the players to change the situation in their favor and solve the first task, namely, to confidently break through the resistance of sellers at 1.1914 and close the day and week above this mark, and even better - above the level of 1.1927, where yesterday the maximum trading values for EUR/USD were shown.