FX.co ★ Hot forecast for EUR/USD on April 8, 2021

Sentiment about the single European currency has changed drastically. And the point is not that it has started to actively go down since the opening of the US session. This became clear even during the publication of the final data on the business activity indices in the euro area, which were significantly better than forecasts. For example, the index of business activity in the service sector rose from 48.8 points to 53.2 points, although the preliminary estimate showed an increase to 52.5 points. The composite PMI was expected to rise from 45.7 points to 48.8 points, but it rose to 49.6 points. Nevertheless, the single European currency showed extremely modest growth, much less significant than all the previous days, when the macroeconomic background could be described as absent. In other words, the speculative hype has already driven the single European currency so high that it simply has nowhere to grow. As a result, this led to its subsequent decline.

Composite Business Activity Index (Europe):

In Europe, data on producer prices are published today, the growth rate of which may accelerate from 0.0% to 1.1%. This is not just a sharp jump. This is a direct indication of a further increase in inflation, about which there are already too many concerns. The market is seriously afraid that the European Central Bank will lose control of the situation, and will be forced to dramatically change the direction of its monetary policy. This is what the European business is clearly not ready for. So, even without any speculative interest in a decline, the single European currency will have a very good reason to weaken.

Producer Price Index (Europe):

The EUR/USD currency pair showed speculative activity during the previous trading day, as a result of which it was possible to observe an upward and downward movement. As a resistance level on the way of buyers, the level of 1.1900 stands, the role of support is played by the variable coordinate of 1.1865.

The market dynamics continue to please traders, as the volatility on a stable basis has at least an average indicator, which positively affects the volume of daily fluctuations.

If we proceed from the current position of the quote, another stagnation can be seen during the Asian session, where the fluctuation limits do not exceed 25 points.

Considering the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, it is worth highlighting the upward move from the pivot point of 1.1703 (March 31), the scale of which is not yet in force to overcome the downward activity from the maximum of the medium-term trend of 1.2349.

In this situation, it can be assumed that the amplitude in the range of 1.1860/1.1880 will again become a catalyst for trading forces and attract the attention of speculators. If we consider the fact that the upward trend is slowing down, we will get a sell signal if the price is kept lower than 1.1860, with the prospect of a move to 1.1830-1.1800.

From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, it can be seen that the indicators of technical instruments on the minute and hour intervals have a variable signal (buy/sell) due to the amplitude of price fluctuations.