FX.co ★ GBP/USD analysis on April 5. IMF: recovery of many countries will be difficult

For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave pattern looks more convincing. However, the increase in quotes in recent days suggests that the downward trend, which begins on February 24, has already been completed and has taken a three-wave form. That is, on March 25, we could see the minimum of wave c, at which the decline in the quotes of the instrument will end. If this assumption is correct, then the increase in quotes will continue as part of the construction of a new upward trend section. However, there are still chances that the third wave of the downward trend will take a longer and more convincing form. I believe that an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level will indicate that the markets are not ready for new purchases of the British dollar. Thus, the British pound has excellent prospects for building a new upward trend, although this is quite contrary to the news background. For example, on Friday, the reports of Nonfarm Payrolls and US unemployment were ignored, which is quite strange.

The news background for the British dollar on Friday was the same as for the euro currency. However, just like the euro, it failed to resume its decline. Apart from the US statistics, there were no other important statistics on Friday. Today, the International Monetary Fund said that due to the coronavirus pandemic, inequality between developed and large developing economies is developing very strongly. The IMF also reports that inequality has worsened dramatically over the past three decades, with about 95 million people falling below the poverty line last year. The pandemic is making budgets very poor, and Governments need to allocate funds more efficiently. The head of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva believes that all countries of the world will develop very unevenly, since the economic situation in all countries is different, and in addition, many countries do not have any access to vaccines at all, and some have already vaccinated about 50% of their population. The IMF also believes that about 121 countries will need tax policy reforms and improvements in social services (health, education).

However, in the UK, vaccines are still doing well. It is bad in the UK with an economy that has been badly affected by both the pandemic and Brexit. However, it is the high rate of vaccination that gives hope that the economy will recover at a high rate.

And at this time, I still expect to build a downward wave 3 or C. Thus, I recommend resuming sales of the instrument in case of an unsuccessful attempt to overcome the mark of 1.3867, which corresponds to 23.6% in Fibonacci, with targets located near the 35th figure. A successful attempt to break this mark will most likely require making adjustments and additions to the current wave marking.

The section of the trend, which originates on September 23, took a five-wave fully equipped form. Thus, this section of the trend is presumably completed, and the decline in quotes may resume as part of the construction of a new downward section of the trend, the first two waves of which have already completed their construction. However, the downward trend may turn out to be shortened and it has already completed its construction.