FX.co ★ Hot forecast for EUR/USD on April 5, 2021

Although last Friday was a non-working day in Europe and North America, there was still some market reaction to the content of the United States Department of Labor report. This is somewhat surprising, and even alarming. One may get the feeling that any reaction or activity on this issue will not be seen today, but the content of this very report is really great. Apparently, the US labor market is recovering significantly faster than expected. The unemployment rate itself fell from 6.2% to 6.0%, which fully coincided with expectations. Outside of agriculture, not 680 thousand new jobs were created, but 916 thousand. This is incredibly many, and even if the data coincided with the forecasts, it is still a lot. Moreover, the previous data were revised up — from 379 thousand, it went up to 468 thousand.

Ergo, the unemployment rate will continue to decline. This is what differentiates America from Europe, where unemployment is rising. So, the interest in the dollar should not be surprising. Everything is perfectly fair. After all, if unemployment decreases, consumer activity will grow, and it will pull the entire economy as a whole, which is already recovering much faster than in the Old World. In fact, the United States is already showing some of the best economic recovery rates in the world. But due to the fact that the European and American stock exchanges were closed on Friday, the reaction to the content of the report was expected only today. Nonetheless, some movement was observed on Friday, even if it's not strong.

Number of New Non-Agricultural Jobs Created (United States):

A slight weakening of the single European currency was already seen since the opening of the European session. It is extremely weak. In other words, if the content of the report of the Ministry of Labor will be recouped, it is only to an insignificant extent. Today, the final data on business activity indices in the United States are published. But even at the time of the publication of preliminary data, the market put all this in the value of the dollar. It is true that there is an option that the final data will differ from the preliminary data. However, these differences are usually quite modest. As we can recall on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector published last week, the differences were symbolic. Apparently, exactly the same thing will happen today. But it should not be forgotten that, in general, the content of the report of the Ministry of Labor in any case increases the attractiveness of the dollar, which means that it will gradually strengthen its position.

Services PMI (United States):

The EUR/USD currency pair dared to show a downward activity last Friday. However, due to the absence of key players in the market, the volatility was very low, and speculators managed to weaken the euro by only 35 points, which is insignificant on the market scale.

If we proceed from the current location of the quote, we can see that the downward interest set on Friday is still relevant among traders, but the scale of the price change is insignificant during the Asian session.

Considering the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, it is worth noting that the upward move from the area of 1.1700, this is only part of the tact of the downward movement from the peak of the medium-term trend.

In this situation, we can assume that the downward interest will continue to manifest itself in the market, but the greatest activity on the part of sellers may occur after holding the price below 1.1745.

The development perspective considers the resumption of the main downward trend from the peak of the medium-term trend.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, it can be seen that the indicators of technical instruments on the minute interval are already taking a sell position, due to a gradual decline in the quote. The hourly period has a buy signal, based on the upward movement of the past week. The daily period, as before, signals a sale, focusing on a downward move from the peak of the medium-term trend.