FX.co ★ Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on March 30, 2021

The United Kingdom's credit market data gave investors an unexpectedly pleasant surprise, which somewhat raised the pound sterling. It should be noted that the investors we are talking about here are huge investors. The fact is that only 87.7 thousand mortgages were approved, and the total volume of mortgage lending amounted to 6.2 billion pounds. According to forecasts, the approved mortgage loans were supposed to be 94.9 thousand, for a total of 5.0 billion pounds. To simply put it, this indicates an increase in demand specifically for expensive real estate, which is often an object of investment. This means that prices for such real estate will continue to rise, therefore, the investment attractiveness increases. After all, if the prices of luxury housing in England are growing, then it means that it can be sold at a more interesting price in the future. It's no secret that owning expensive real estate in this country is considered a status thing, and many rich people from all over the world are eager to get it, even if they don't need it. In this case, this is quite a serious investment market. And the latest data just speak about the growth of the premium segment of real estate, particularly the prices in this segment.

At the same time, the total volume of consumer lending fell by 1.3 billion pounds, which was slightly better than the forecast of 1.6 billion pounds. Here, the data turned out to be slightly better than the forecasts too. Therefore, it is not surprising that the pound rose quite actively. However, it did not grow for long, quickly returning to the starting positions. This behavior confirms the presence of a general trend for the dollar's strengthening once again, and any news can only change the current outlook for a while.

Mortgage lending volume (UK):

Euro's behavior, which began to actively decline this morning, is significant. It pulled the pound sterling with it. This is relative to the concerns about the loosening of the inflationary spiral, which can lead to a sharp change in the ECB's policy. At the same time, the regulator will try to reduce inflation to 2.0% instead of raising it. The preliminary inflation data for Spain showed an acceleration in the growth rate of consumer prices from 0.0% to 1.3%. This is quite a lot, since the most ambitious forecast was only 0.9%. Basically, everyone agreed that inflation would accelerate to only 0.3%.

At the same time, the rate of decline in retail sales slowed down from -9.5% to -5.9%, instead of -4.2%. In general, it is not surprising that consumer activity is not sharply growing with such a rapid inflation surge. It's even surprising that it is increasing. However, this only makes it even more certain that inflation will continue to rise quite quickly.

Today, preliminary inflation data are still being published not only in Spain, but also in Germany, which is the driver of the entire Eurozone. According to forecasts, Germany's inflation should rise from 1.3% to 1.5%. However, it is more likely to focus on slightly different forecasts given what happened in Spain. According to the boldest estimates, the growth rate of consumer prices should accelerate to 1.7% and it is quite possible that it will be even larger. Therefore, the fears are becoming more a reality.

Inflation (Spain):

The Euro currency still managed to show activity after a long fluctuation in a narrow range of 1.1760/1.1805, breaking through the lower border and forming a speculative impulse in the market. If the price is kept below the level of 1.1750, this will increase sellers' chances to prolong the correction from the high of the trend.

The GBP/USD pair returned to the area of the variable pivot point of 1.3750 after several speculative fluctuations, showing downward activity. If the price is held below the level of 1.3750, it will open the path towards the range of 1.3700-1.3680.