FX.co ★ Analysis of GBP/USD on March 29, 2021. Unimpressive retail sales. Sterling to resume decline according to the current wave counting

The wave picture for the Pound/Dollar instrument looks more convincing after making adjustments. At this time, waves 1 and 2 of the new downward trend segment are clearly visible. They can also be waves a and b of the corrective part of the trend, but for now, I consider them still as part of the new impulse section of the trend. There are no internal waves inside the supposed wave 3, so it is difficult to imagine how long this wave will be. Although the retreat of quotes from the lows reached and an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 127.2% Fibonacci level just speaks in favor of the fact that the construction of an internal, corrective wave of 3 or C. If this is true, then today or tomorrow the formation of a downward wave may resume with targets located near the 35th figure. Since wave 1 or a has taken on a distinct five-wave form, then wave 3 or c should take on a clear five-wave form. Thus, in the next week or two, I expect the instrument quotes to continue to decline.

The news background for the Pound/Dollar instrument was rather weak on Friday. In addition to the US reports, which we know were not impressive, there was also the UK retail report, which was also not impressive. However, on Friday the movement of the instrument was still quite calm, but today, on Monday, the markets were much more active. From early morning until lunchtime, the instrument increased by 80 points and then decreased by the same value. And this is taking into account the fact that there was no important news either in the USA or in the UK. But, from the point of view of wave analysis, everything is perfect. Since the upward wave is corrective, according to the current wave counting, it should have assumed a three-wave form. It is the assumed internal wave c that was built today. Thus, now the instrument can resume its decline within the expected wave 3-3 or c. If this is true, then despite any news background, the decline will continue to the 35th figure. Tomorrow, the UK and the US will have empty news calendars again. Thus, nothing should prevent a new decline in quotes. At the same time, if the markets make a successful attempt to break the high that was reached today, the whole wave pattern could take on a more complex form. Returning to the news background, I don't see any global topics that are more important than wave counting now.

And at this time, I still expect the formation of a downward wave of 3 or c. Thus, I recommend continuing to sell the instrument for each new MACD signal "down" with targets located around the 35th figure. So far, there are no grounds for making changes to the current wave counting.

The part of the trend, originating on September 23, took a five-wave, fully completed form. Thus, this part of the trend is presumably completed, and the decline in quotes may resume as part of the construction of a new downward part of the trend, the first two waves of which have already completed their construction. Despite some ambiguity in the internal counting of the upward trend, the main thing now is the persuasiveness of the counting of the new downward trend.