FX.co ★ GBP/USD. March 22. COT report. The UK has vaccinated more than half of the adult population.

GBP/USD – 1H.

According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed a fall to the Fibo level of 61.8% (1.3820), while on the chart, Friday's fall looks very impressive. However, on Friday, the information background was zero, and if you look at the graphic picture as a whole, it becomes clear that there was a movement in the side corridor for the Briton. The chart clearly shows that the quotes regularly perform rebounds from the levels of 38.2% and 61.8% and cannot secure above or below the side corridor. Thus, the fall of the British dollar on Friday could have nothing to do with the information background at all. If so, then today the picture will not change, since the information background will be almost zero. Thus, the rebound of quotes from the level of 61.8% (1.3820) allows traders to count on growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.3900). And fixing the pair's rate above the level of 1.3900 will work in favor of continuing growth towards the next corrective level of 38.2% (1.3980). At the same time, vaccination of the population continues at a high rate in the UK. On Friday, more than 700,000 people were vaccinated, which is an absolute record for the country. According to medical estimates, more than half of the adult population of the country has received at least one dose of the vaccine. Thus, given the high rate of vaccination of the population, the British economy may soon accelerate its recovery from the crisis and two lockdowns this winter. However, the economic data speak in favor of the weak state of the economy. Progress, if it will be noticeable, will not be earlier than the fall of 2021.

GBP/USD – 4H.

On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair, after rebounding from the level of 161.8% (1.3979) and the formation of a bearish divergence at the CCI indicator, performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and began the process of falling, which at the moment ended near the level of 1.3850. As I said above, it looks like the pair is currently trading inside a sideways corridor with a lower border near the 1.3820 level. Thus, it is the closing below the level of 1.3820 that will allow traders to count on the continuation of the fall in the direction of the level of 127.2% (1.3701).

GBP/USD – Daily.

On the daily chart, the pair's quotes continue to be above the ascending trend line. In the long term, the "bullish" mood of traders is still preserved. Closing the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084) will work in favor of continuing growth towards the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.4812).

GBP/USD – Weekly.

On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased.

Overview of fundamentals:

There were no major news or events in the UK or America on Friday. The information background was zero on this day.

News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

On Monday, the calendars of economic events in the United States and Britain are again empty, so the information background will be absent today.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

The latest COT report of March 16 on the British pound was just as discouraging as on the euro. The "Non-commercial" category of traders behaved much more modestly and closed only 6.2 thousand long contracts. But the category of "Commercial" traders got rid of 23 thousand long contracts and 27 thousand short contracts. Thus, in total, the British lost approximately 30-33 thousand contracts of both types. Such a sharp drop in activity, by the way, did not affect the chart of the pair in any way. I can only conclude that the "bullish" mood of traders has weakened even more recently. However, the number of purchases in the hands of speculators is still twice as large as the number of sales.

GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:

I recommend buying the British dollar today in case of a rebound of quotes from the level of 1.3820 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3900. It was recommended to sell the pound if a close at 1.3900 is made with a target of 1.3820. Now it is recommended to sell at the close under 1.3820 with a target of 1.3721.

Terms:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.