FX.co ★ Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on March 19, 2021

After the rapid rise shown at the auction on March 17, it was possible to assume that the main currency pair of the Forex market would continue the upward momentum. However, this was not destined to come true. The Fed's comments, after the announcement of its decision on the interest rate, can be viewed from different points of view. On the one hand, the statements of the leaders of the Federal Reserve that the economy shows such strong growth, which has not been observed for about forty years, should certainly contribute to the strengthening of the national currency. On the other hand, the Fed confirmed that the current monetary policy and low-interest rates will remain for a long period. At the same time, the duration of this very period will be determined by the rate of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, the situation with which cannot be considered good.

In general, there has been more scandalous information about the AstraZeneca vaccine, which has several side effects. However, due to the Western countries ignoring the Russian vaccine "Sputnik V", there is a shortage in the vaccine market. Thus, AstraZeneca is in demand in some countries. For example, the United States is preparing to ship about four million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine to its neighbors (Mexico and Canada) as part of an agreement that was concluded earlier, before all these recent scandals related to the ill-fated vaccine. It is worth noting that with the arrival of Biden, the foreign policy of the United States does not look quite clear and understandable, at least not yet. Although the main enemies of the United States are always Russia and China, and Biden called Vladimir Putin a murderer, which caused even more doubts about the mental abilities of this elderly man to lead a country like the United States.

If we return to the analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair, then, despite yesterday's data on initial applications for unemployment benefits, which grew stronger than expected, the US dollar strengthened its position in a pair with the single European currency.

Daily

Once again, we have to state the factor of very strong resistance, which passes near the psychological level of 1.2000. A more accurate level that does not allow the price to go higher yesterday was the mark of 1.1988 and the path of the euro bulls was blocked by the level of 1.1990. Yesterday, the pair was saved from further decline by the red line of the Ichimoku Tenkan indicator. According to the technical picture on the daily chart and the author's personal opinion, it will be extremely difficult to break above the strong technical area of 1.1990-1.2010, since (in addition to the highs of the last two days and the most important psychological level of 1.2000) there is also a black 89 exponential moving average that can strengthen the resistance. To believe that the EUR/USD pair has returned to the upward trend, all these obstacles must be overcome, and it is very difficult to do this without a strong driver. As for the US dollar, it still does not think to give up its position concerning its main competitors, rather the opposite. I recommend looking for options for sales after short-term rises to 1.1965, 1.1985, 1.2000, and 1.2010. At the moment, purchases seem to be a more risky positioning, so it is better to refrain from them for now. At least until Monday.