FX.co ★ Overview of the GBP/USD pair. February 25. Vaccination rates in the UK and the US are among the highest in the world. The growth of the British dollar remains "speculative".

4-hour timeframe

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 70.4675

The British pound surged up in late-night trading on Wednesday without any preliminary correction. That is, the upward movement continues non-stop in the last three weeks and the last five months. However, in yesterday's Asian session, the growth of the British currency also accelerated. As a result, the Murray level of "+1/8"-1.4221 was worked out, from which the price still bounced. Thus, the pound sterling on a completely flat place added about 200 points. In total, over the past three weeks alone, the pound has grown by almost 700 points. During the same time, the euro currency, which objectively has more reasons for growth, rose by 200 points. Thus, if anyone still had doubts about the validity of the current growth of the British currency, then now they should be dispelled. The pound continues its speculative growth, which began as a well-founded movement 11 months ago. But in the last few months, the British currency has been rising simply because it is being bought. And they buy it simply because it is growing, and more traders also want to make money on this movement. Thus, there are no clear reasons for the pound's rise to the level of 42. This movement is extremely similar to individual sections of the movement of oil or bitcoin. These assets are also characterized by "speculative growth".

The problem of the "coronavirus" is slowly beginning to recede, however, it is still too early to celebrate the victory. We regularly receive news from the UK about the epidemiological situation. For example, we already clearly know that the UK government, led by Boris Johnson, has developed a plan for a gradual exit from quarantine, which will begin on March 8 and end on June 21. Of course, this is just a plan, reality can make certain adjustments to it. For example, we remind you that it was in the Foggy Albion that several new strains of "coronavirus" were discovered at once, which can be much more contagious, deadly, and resistant to existing vaccines than the usual COVID-2019. However, doctors and epidemiologists are not yet sounding the alarm about this. At the same time, the vaccination process continues in the UK and about 15 million Britons have already received a dose of the vaccine. Thus, by the end of the summer in Britain, the entire adult population can be vaccinated. But the data on the States was not so much to clearly understand what is happening overseas. Recall that the United States continues to be the leader in the number of coronavirus diseases and the number of deaths from it. President Joe Biden also promises to provide the vaccine to all adults by the fall of 2021. However, in the case of America, we are talking about 300 million people. In the United States, two vaccines are allowed: ViopTesh from Pfizer and Moderna. So far, about 82 million doses of the vaccine have been distributed, but only 65 million have been used, according to data from the official website of the US Centers for Disease Control. Experts note that these figures could be higher if they were not for the excessively large area of the country. For example, the Pfizer vaccine is very demanding in terms of transportation and storage, so there are many difficulties in getting it to every small town or village in the country. The government has already been offered assistance from retailers Amazon and Walmart, which have indicated that they are ready to help with the distribution of the vaccine. Amazon is ready to help with the distribution of the vaccine and its delivery, while Walmart offers to organize mass vaccination centers on its premises. In general, the vaccination process in the United States is also quite fast, more than a million people are vaccinated every day. Of course, it is not without problems. It is not always possible to fulfill the vaccination plan, and after all, it is still about the life and health of people. For example, in the city of New York, about 2.5 million people are recognized as the most vulnerable, and they should get vaccinated in the first place. However, the city receives only 100,000 doses a week. Also, the issue of refusal of the second dose of the vaccine by individual groups of people is now being considered and discussed. It is reported that in most people, the body produces a sufficient amount of antibodies in response to the introduction of the vaccine, so they simply do not need a second dose (as recommended by the manufacturer). However, doctors also fear that existing vaccines may not be very effective against new strains that have been discovered in South America, the United Kingdom, and Brazil in recent months.

Other scientists who are engaged in sociological research, meanwhile, concluded that in 2021, the UK and the US can achieve herd immunity against the "coronavirus". This conclusion was made based on the current vaccination rates in these countries. But in the European Union, it will not be possible to achieve such a result at the current pace. It is reported that in the United States, about 1.6 million people are vaccinated per day, and in the UK – about 430 thousand per day. In Germany, the same figure is about 100 thousand, in France – 95 thousand, in Italy – about 70 thousand. The report says that to achieve herd immunity in 2021, the European Union needs to increase the daily number of vaccinations by three times.

Thus, in general, it can not be concluded that the high rate of vaccination in the UK caused a new increase in the British currency.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 112 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Thursday, February 25, therefore, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3995 and 1.4219. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back to the top will signal a possible resumption of the upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.4099

S2 – 1.4038

S3 – 1.3977

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.4160

R2 – 1.4221

R3 – 1.4282

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair started a round of downward correction on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to open new long positions with targets of 1.4160 and 1.4219 after the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top. It is recommended to consider sell orders with targets of 1.3977 and 1.3916 if the price is fixed below the moving average.