FX.co ★ GBP/USD. February 16. COT report. The pound continues to break records and rush to the 40th figure.

GBP/USD – 1H.

According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair continue the growth process and have made a consolidation above the corrective level of 161.8% (1.3895). Thus, the next target is the level of 1.3976, which is very close to the 40th figure. The upward trend corridor keeps the current traders' sentiment "bullish". However, the closing of the pair's exchange rate under it will work in favor of the US currency, and some fall in the direction of the levels of 1.3820 and 1.3744. Although no important information came from Britain and the United States on Monday, bull traders continued to be active in the foreign exchange market, which caused a new rise in the pound. The latest positive news from the UK was the GDP report, which unexpectedly exceeded the wildest expectations for many. However, several days have passed since then, and the British dollar is still growing, although the information background is very weak at the beginning of the new week. Also, the euro/dollar pair just stands still, which works out the lack of information background. But the Briton continues to trade on emotions. In theory, tomorrow's UK inflation report could mislead. The consumer price index is expected to decline in January, and if the actual value is even lower than expected, then the British dollar may start to fall. But in general, I do not yet see why the British dollar should start a downward trend. In any case, there is now an upward trend corridor. As long as the pair does not leave it, it makes no sense to wait for a new trend. Since there is no news of the global plan now either in Britain or in the United States, it is very difficult to even imagine what should happen for the growth of the pound to stop. Most likely, it will stop only when bull traders get enough of buying and stop believing in the further growth of the British dollar.

GBP/USD – 4H

On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair, after rebounding from the level of 1.3850, performed a slight drop, but after the formation of a bullish divergence in the CCI indicator, it consolidated above the level of 1.3850 and resumed the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.3977). The closing of the pair's exchange rate above the level of 161.8% will increase the chances of continuing growth in the direction of the level of 1.4126.

GBP/USD – Daily.

On the daily chart, the pair's quotes made a consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513), which still allows us to count on continued growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084).

GBP/USD – Weekly.

On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased.

Overview of fundamentals:

On Monday, the US and UK calendars were completely blank, so there was no background information on that day. The Briton, however, did not care, it continued the process of growth.

The economic calendar for the US and the UK:

On February 16, the calendars of economic events in the United Kingdom and the United States are again empty. Thus, the influence of the information background will be absent today.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

The latest COT report of February 9 on the British pound was quite interesting and noteworthy. In recent weeks, speculators have not made serious steps in the direction of strengthening the "bullish" mood. However, all this time, the pound was still growing. The latest COT report showed an increase in the number of long contracts focused on the hands of the "Non-commercial" category of traders by 6,465 units. At the same time, speculators got rid of 4,660 short contracts. Thus, the Briton grew even without increasing long contracts from speculators, now it has an even greater chance of continuing growth.

Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:

It was recommended to buy the British dollar at the close above the level of 1.3895 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3976. Now, these positions can be maintained until the closing of quotes under the trend corridor. It is recommended to sell the pound when closing under the trend corridor with the targets of 1.3820 and 1.3744.

Terms:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.