FX.co ★ Hot forecast for EUR/USD on February 16, 2021

Europe's industrial production has strongly declined from -0.6% to -0.8%. It should be noted that a rise is expected or more precisely, a slowdown in the recession rate, since the industry should have shown no changes in annual terms. In other words, we expected zero growth. Moreover, it should be highlighted that the industrial downturn has been going on for twenty-five months in a row, which started in October 2018. Therefore, it is clear that the situation is in a bad state. Nevertheless, the European currency actually stood still. And for the most part, the reason lies on the holiday in the US in celebration of President's Day.

Industrial production (Europe):

Today, GDP's second estimate for the fourth quarter is published in Europe, which should confirm the first one. It showed an acceleration in the economic recession rate from -4.3% to -5.1%. Theoretically, this is clearly a negative factor, but it will not have any serious effect. The first estimate is already included in the euro's value, and since the second one coincides with it, then there is no reason to panic. At the same time, although the deepening economic recession in Europe will put some pressure on the European currency, it will be very weak.

GDP growth rates (Europe):

The EUR/USD pair found a resistance point in the area of 1.2150 again, where a stop occurred on a natural basis and, as a result, a slowdown-pullback. Market participants always see a decline in the volume of long positions in the area of 1.2150, and this case was no exception.

The market dynamics are more inclined to slow down than to accelerate. Such status has been taking place on the market for almost a week.

Based on the quote's current location, there are signs of a pullback from the level of 1.2150, but the quote is still at a conditional high.

Considering the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, a number of price cycles are noteworthy. We have an upward trend in the market, where there was a correction that formed at 1.2349 ---> 1.1952 relative to the high of 1.2349. The current movement is part of the correction with a range of 1.1952 ---> 1.2150.

We can assume that the natural basis associated with the 1.2150 area will lead to another increase in the volume of short positions, which will pull the euro rate in the direction of 1.2100. The strongest weakening of the European currency is expected after holding the price below 1.2080.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments on the hourly and daily periods signal a buy, since the quote can be found in the 1.2150 region. In turn, minute periods signal a sell due to the primary rebound stage from the level of 1.2150.