FX.co ★ GBP/USD: plan for the US session on February 15 (analysis of morning trades)

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need to:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.3909 and recommended to act based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze the entry point. It is seen how the formation of a false breakout, after updating the resistance of 1.3909, leads to a slight decrease in the pound by 20 points. However, it was quite difficult to count on a larger drop in the pair, especially given the bullish momentum observed during the Asian session. However, there are much fewer buyers in this range, and so far few people dare to increase long positions in the area of the current annual highs.

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the proto-trading of the 1.3909 range, which is now happening. The consolidation with the test of this level from top to bottom in the second half of the day forms a good signal for the opening of new long positions in the continuation of the bull market. This will open a direct road to the area of the highs of 1.3954 and 1.3993, where I recommend taking the profits. A more optimal scenario for buying GBP/USD is a downward correction to the support area of 1.3862, but it is unlikely that we will wait for it in the near future. Only the formation of a false breakout forms a new entry point into long positions. In the absence of bull activity and the rapid fall of the pound, it is best to postpone long positions until the test of a larger minimum of 1.3820, where the lower border of the new ascending channel passes. You can expect a rebound from the level of 1.3820 by 20-25 points at once.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need to:

The bears coped with their initial task in the first half of the day, but this did not lead to a larger move down to the support area of 1.3862. The technical picture remains the same, but you need to understand that if no one sells the pound, it will continue to grow according to the trend formed at the end of last week. Trading against the trend is not the best idea. The bears should continue to defend the 1.3909 resistance. However, as in the morning, it will be possible to open short positions from it only when a false breakout is formed. This may lead to a downward correction to the support area of 1.3862. The longer-range target of the bears will be at least 1.3820, where I recommend fixing the profit. If in the second half of the day the bulls will not experience any special problems in the resistance area of 1.3909, then it is best to abandon sales before updating the larger highs in the area of 1.3954 and 1.3990, from which you can open short positions immediately for a rebound in the expectation of a downward correction of 20-25 points within the day.

Let me remind you that the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for February 2 recorded an increase in both long and short positions. This time, there were more buyers, which led to an increase in the positive delta. The desperate attempts of the bulls to break above the annual highs will sooner or later lead to success, so buyers do not lose hope for the continuation of the bullish trend in February this year. Each major decline in the pound forces major players to increase their long positions in the expectation of a more active recovery of the GBP/USD in the future. Long non-profit positions rose from the level of 47,360 to the level of 53,658. At the same time, the short non-profit rose from the level of 39,395 to the level of 44,042, which did not allow the bears to take control of the market. As a result, the non-profit net position rose to 9,616 from 7,965 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 1.3675 against 1.3676.

The fact that the bulls held their positions on such high volatility within the week once again suggests that the pair is set to overcome the annual highs. I recommend betting on further strengthening of the pound. As the quarantine measures are lifted, which are expected to be phased out in February this year, demand for the pound will only increase. The support of the population and the labor market, which will be announced in March this year, will also have a positive impact on the British pound. All talk of negative interest rates on the part of the Bank of England was again postponed indefinitely last week, which allows the British pound to "spread its wings".

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates the continued growth of the pound.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

Only a break of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3915 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pound. In case of a decline, the pair will be supported by the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3830.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.