FX.co ★ EUR/USD. February 15. COT report. Is the crisis in Italy over? Mario Draghi and his cabinet have taken the oath of office

EUR/USD – 1H.

On February 12, the EUR/USD pair performed a slight drop below the corrective level of 38.2% (1.2104), after which it turned in favor of the European currency and resumed the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2151), from which it last performed a rebound. Thus, a new rebound will lead to the fact that the pair will again be able to count on some fall, and closing above the level of 1.2151 will increase the probability of continuing the growth of quotes in the direction of the next Fibo level of 61.8% (1.2197). An upward trend corridor keeps the current traders' sentiment "bullish". Meanwhile, one of the greatest experiences associated with the European Union in recent times has been the political crisis in Italy. Let me remind you that the previous government was disbanded after several parties broke away from the ruling majority. It was not possible to form a new government, and the Prime Minister resigned. Our old friend Mario Draghi, who served as ECB president for a long time, was charged with saving the country from a new economic and political crisis. Draghi formed his team and on Saturday, February 13, the new government took the oath of office. The ceremony was held at the presidential residence in Rome, after which Mario Draghi introduced the members of the new government. The new government, as experts say, is a broad coalition that will allow you to achieve a majority of votes in Parliament. Thus, the EU has one less problem so far. Now it remains only to resolve the issue of the economic recovery fund, which is still not formed and is not distributed among the EU countries. However, the European currency is not too worried about this. Its overall growth continues.

EUR/USD – 4H.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes completed a close above the downward trend line, so the mood of traders changed to "bullish". Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the level of 1.2204. The bullish divergence of the CCI indicator also worked in favor of the European currency and increased the chances of continued growth.

EUR/USD – Daily.

On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a breakdown of the lower border of the upward trend corridor, but it turned out to be false. Therefore, at the moment, the pair has performed a reversal in favor of the euro and resumed the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 423.6% (1.2496).

EUR/USD – Weekly.

On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.

Overview of fundamentals:

On February 12, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was released in the United States. There were no more important news or reports during the day.

News calendar for the United States and the European Union:

EU - change in the volume of industrial production (10:00 GMT).

On February 15, one report on industrial production in the EU will be released. However, it is not important, so the information background today will be extremely weak.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

Last Friday, another COT report was released. And it turned out to be much calmer than the previous one. The "Non-commercial" category of traders, which I consider the most important, opened 4,722 long contracts and got rid of 2,606 short contracts. Thus, the mood of speculators again became more "bullish". Accordingly, the prospects of the European currency are improving again after the report of a week ago, when speculators got rid of 23 thousand long contracts and many believed that the uptrend would be completed. However, I warned that this behavior of large players may be an accident. It is still too early to talk about the end of the upward trend. In total, during the last reporting week, all categories of players closed approximately 11 thousand contract positions. Consequently, interest in the euro currency has decreased slightly.

Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:

It was recommended to buy the euro currency with the targets of 1.2151 and 1.2197 on the hourly chart when closing quotes above the descending trend line on the 4-hour chart. The first goal was achieved. I recommend new purchases of the euro at the close above the level of 1.2151. I recommend selling when closing quotes under the ascending corridor on the hourly chart with a target of 1.2046.

Terms:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.