FX.co ★ GBP/USD. February 12. COT report. How will the UK GDP report affect the rate of the British dollar?

GBP/USD – 1H.

According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and closed under an upward trend corridor. Thus, the mood of traders is now characterized as "bearish", and the fall in quotes can be continued in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.3744). In recent days, there have been several important speeches, in particular by Jerome Powell and Andrew Bailey. However, in general, they did not affect the mood of traders in any way. Today, on Friday, perhaps the most important report of this week will be released – UK GDP for the fourth quarter. I would like to note at once that this is not the final value of GDP for this quarter, but an intermediate one. That is, the next time it may be different from the current one.

However, in recent months, many traders and analysts have argued about how bad the British economy is feeling because of two "lockdowns" this winter. According to forecasts, GDP will grow by 0.5%, and if this figure is confirmed, it will be just a great result that can support the pound again. However, now this figure still looks too optimistic. And the final estimate of GDP is projected in the negative area, which is two. Thus, the reaction of traders can be very restrained today. Also in the UK, a fairly important indicator of industrial production will be released, which may also grow by 0.5% in December. Thus, the growth may be small in both reports, but all the same height.

GBP/USD – 4H.

On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed an increase to the level of 1.3850 and a rebound from it. This rebound allows traders to expect a slight drop in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.3701). Closing the pair's rate above the level of 1.3850 will increase the probability of further growth towards the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.3977).

GBP/USD – Daily.

On the daily chart, the pair's quotes made a consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513), which still allows us to count on continued growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084).

GBP/USD – Weekly.

On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased.

Overview of fundamentals:

On Thursday, the calendar of economic events in the UK was empty. In the US – only the report on applications for unemployment benefits. There was practically no information background.

News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

UK - change in GDP (07:00 GMT).

UK - change in industrial production (07:00 GMT).

US - consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (15:00 GMT).

On February 12, there will be very important statistics in the UK, and in the US - almost an empty calendar of events again.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

The latest COT report from February 2 for the British was much more "calm" than for the Europeans. During the reporting week, the "Non-commercial" category of traders opened 5.5 thousand long contracts and only 2 hundred fewer short-contracts. Thus, the mood of the major players, according to the COT report, has not changed. Speculators continue to maintain a very restrained "bullish" mood, which can not be said by the behavior of the Briton itself, which continues to remain very high and does not show any signs of having a desire to start falling.

Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:

It was recommended to buy the British dollar at the close above the level of 1.3820 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3895. However, the pair have left the limits of the ascending corridor, so it is not recommended to buy it now. It was recommended to sell the pound sterling at the closing of quotes on the hourly chart under the trend corridor with targets of 1.3744 and 1.3698. These transactions can be supported today.

Terms:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.