FX.co ★ Analysis of GBP/USD. February 5. The pound does not want to fall

In an article on the EUR/USD instrument, I said that its wave marking now looks extremely "beautiful". Concerning the pound sterling, this cannot be said for a long time. In addition to the classical and basic wave structures, there are many others within which it is usually much more difficult to trade. In the situation with the British, we are now seeing such structures. They are neither wave 5 nor wave 3. At the global level, we have wave 5, within which there are already five internal waves. However, the supposed wave 5-5 is constantly lengthening and becoming more complex. Within it, there are already a dozen waves of various scales. Moreover, all this information is extremely difficult to transfer to trading, because the internal wave structure of the wave 5-5 does not have a classical impulse form. Moreover, near the 127.2% Fibonacci level, the instrument met an insurmountable obstacle, but after several times failing to continue rising through the mark of 1.3750, it did not start building a correction wave, a set of waves, or a new downward trend section. Yesterday's meeting of the Bank of England only confused all the cards. The regulator did not make any important decisions but hinted that in the near future we should not expect a reduction in the key rate. The markets responded to this information with new purchases of the British dollar, which returned to the level of 127.2% in Fibonacci. What's next is unclear.

Today, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, is due to speak at the national agency's briefing on the monetary policy report. And just an hour later, he speaks again at the London School of Economics symposium on "Modern challenges for a modern central bank: the prospects of the Bank of England". It is difficult to say whether these speeches will provide interesting information for the markets. I am inclined to believe that all the most important and interesting things were already said yesterday. It is unlikely that the governor will add anything else to his yesterday's thesis. In any case, today the attention of the markets will be focused exclusively on the American statistics and I want to believe that it will not pass by the consciousness of traders. The fact is that in recent months, the markets do not often react to reports and various economic events. This is especially evident in the EUR/USD instrument.

In the case of GBP/USD in recent months, it has been influenced by the impending Brexit and trade negotiations between the European Union and the UK, and it seems that it has not yet moved away from the joy associated with these events. Nevertheless, today we are waiting for reports on Nonfarm Payrolls, which should increase by 85,000, and the unemployment rate, which should remain unchanged at 6.7%. A higher NonFarm value could theoretically support dollar demand. But the British may continue to move in complex wave structures and again will not pay attention to economic reports. I do not recommend trading the pound sterling in such conditions, but traders should understand that it is more dangerous than usual. Now there is no certainty that the uptrend segment is over, the wave counting is ambiguous, and the 127.2% Fibonacci level does not resist the instrument, and one should not expect a failed breakout attempt.

The section of the trend, which originates on September 23, took a five-wave fully equipped form. But the internal wave structure of the proposed wave 5-5 still does not look entirely convincing and may require additions and adjustments. Nevertheless, the upward trend has been nearing its end for a long time. The demand for the British dollar, however, remains quite high, and this factor can lead to a further complication of the upward trend.