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FX.co ★ Technical analysis recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 5

Technical analysis recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 5

EUR/USD

Technical analysis recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 5

The first working week of February is nearing completion. The bears were more active and productive this time. They continued their downward movement and reached the supports that were previously indicated near the lower border of the daily cloud (today the Senkou Span B is at 1.1956) and the weekly medium-term trend (1.1975). As a result of the meeting with the supports, another deceleration is possible, the formation of a rebound from the supports will bring back the pair to the area of 1.2064, where the daily short-term trend and the weekly level are now located. Overcoming and breaking the encountered support levels (1.1975-56) will open the way to the weekly Fibo Kijun (1.1886).

Technical analysis recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 5

The bearish traders in the current situation retain the advantage and support of all the analyzed technical instruments. Thanks to this, they continue to develop a downward movement. The downside targets within the day are now the support of the classic Pivot levels 1.1931 – 1.1901 – 1.1845. If the currently emerging upward correction develops, the first important resistance level on H1 will be the central Pivot level (1.1987). The next significant milestone is located at 1.2048 (weekly long-term trend), on the way to it, you can note the first resistance of the classic Pivot levels R1 (1.2017).

GBP/USD

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Technical analysis recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 5

Yesterday, the final support of the daily golden cross (1.3604 – 1.3568) managed to defend the interests of the players for the increase. These levels served as the basis for the formation of a rebound and the return of the pair to the area of the daily short-term trend (1.3661). Today, we close the next working week. If the weekly candle again has the character of uncertainty, and at the moment this is exactly what is observed, then the market will still lack a clear leader and the situation with opportunities for players of all directions will remain.

Technical analysis recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 5

Yesterday, after the decline, the pair returned to the area of attraction of the key levels of 1.3643-70 (the central Pivot level + the weekly long-term trend). It should be noted that these boundaries are now strengthened by the levels of the daily cross (1.3661-1.3640), so it is possible to slow down and stay in the zone of influence of the encountered levels for a longer time. With the active continuation of the rise, the classic Pivot levels will act as resistances within the day (1.3721 – 1.3775 – 1.3853). Consolidation under the key levels (1.3643-70) will change the current balance of power, returning the relevance to bearish sentiment and support 1.3589 (S1) – 1.3511 (S2) – 1.3457 (S3).

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classic), Moving Average (120)

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade
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USD declares war on EUR

What's new is often just what's been forgotten. As spring draws to a close, the long-dismissed mantra "sell America" is making a comeback in markets. The phrase gained traction following Donald Trump's sweeping tariff actions in early April, which heightened fears of a potential US recession. Today, the United States faces a different challenge—fiscal. And the dollar is no longer a safe-haven currency that automatically rallies in times of stress. Still, the US president's threats towards the European Union are clipping the wings of the EUR/USD pair.

If US federal debt does indeed climb to 134% of GDP over the next decade, as projected by Moody's, investors are justified in demanding higher compensation for risk. The so-called term premium in the US bond market has surged to its highest level since 2014. This underscores the depth of market discomfort with the Republican tax-cut proposal.

Chart: US Treasury Term Premium Trend

 USD declares war on EUR

Fiscal troubles are eroding confidence in the US dollar. According to Deutsche Bank, America's fiscal woes pose a greater threat to the greenback than to Treasury bonds. Domestic buyers will likely continue absorbing government debt, but foreign reluctance to do the same could be yet another nail in the coffin for the US dollar index.

The White House, however, has its own agenda. Without waiting for the weekend—so as not to rattle equity markets—Donald Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on goods imported from the European Union. He argued that current talks between Washington and Brussels are going nowhere, that negotiating with Europe is difficult, and that it's time they "got moving." If not, higher import duties will take effect starting June 1.

Markets are now bracing for a new trade war. While the US reached an understanding with China relatively quickly, doing the same with the EU could prove more challenging. Brussels is preparing countermeasures, and tit-for-tat tariffs are likely to harm both the American and European economies. Business activity in the eurozone is already flashing warning signs, so what happens when 50% tariffs hit?

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The only potential lifeline appears to be continued monetary easing by the European Central Bank. A sharp slowdown in average wages, which are now at their lowest since late 2021, suggests that the Governing Council has plenty of room to cut interest rates.

Chart: Eurozone Average Wage Growth Trend

 USD declares war on EUR

 USD declares war on EUR

Thus, while fiscal challenges weigh on the US dollar, the inability of the US and the European Union to swiftly reach a compromise is a clear negative factor for the euro, driven by fears of losing a trade war. This balance of risks further heightens the chances of consolidation in the EUR/USD pair.

Technically, the daily chart shows a battle unfolding around fair value, located near the 1.134 mark. A win for the bulls would allow them to expand long positions built during the euro's dip below $1.13. Conversely, if bears maintain control of this key level, investors will have to wait for a deeper pullback in EUR/USD to initiate new long positions.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade
Go to the articles list Go to this author's articles Open trading account
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Created with Highcharts 8.0.4EURUSD20. May22. May1.121.12251.1251.12751.131.13251.1351.1375
EURUSD1.1364+0.0082+0.72%
GBPUSD1.3536+0.0117+0.86%
USDJPY142.56-1.30-0.91%
USDCHF0.8208-0.0074-0.90%
USDCAD1.3732+0.0004+0.03%
AUDUSD0.6498+0.0086+1.32%
NZDUSD0.5980+0.0003+0.05%
EURJPY161.95+0.02+0.01%
EURCHF0.9329-0.0001-0.01%
EURGBP0.8393+0.0002+0.02%
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