FX.co ★ GBP/USD. January 29. COT report. Boris Johnson tries to keep Scotland in the United Kingdom

GBP/USD – 1H.

According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed yesterday an increase to the corrective level of 127.2% (1.3744), a rebound from it, and a reversal in favor of the US currency with a fall to the level of 1.3698. The rebound of quotes from the level of 1.3698 will lead to a very rapid recovery of the pair's growth, and a close above 1.3744 will increase the probability of further growth of quotes in the direction of 1.3820. Closing the pair below the level of 1.3698 will work in favor of a further fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 100% (1.3625). Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson seriously fears the loss of Scotland in the near future. Let me remind you that this is not just about the country. Scotland occupies a third of the territory of the United Kingdom, and its population is a tenth of the population of Britain. Scotland has been "mulling" an exit for almost a decade. The first referendum was in 2014, now Edinburgh wants to hold a new referendum, as "the situation has changed" - the UK has left the EU, in which Scotland would like to remain. Boris Johnson, during his visit to Scotland, recalled that the country has received a coronavirus vaccine developed by the University of Oxford, and 80 vaccination centers have been established. "We joined together to defeat the virus. The UK's cooperation throughout this pandemic is exactly what the people of Scotland expect," Johnson said. However, it is unlikely that London's generosity will stop the brewing "anti-British" sentiment. Nicola Sturgeon is now waiting for the parliamentary elections, which will be held on May 6, and may allow her to further strengthen her power in the country.

GBP/USD – 4H.

On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a new fall to the ascending trend line and a new rebound, which worked in favor of the British dollar and the resumption of the growth process in the direction of the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.3977). Closing the pair's rate under the trend line will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3481).

GBP/USD - Daily.

On the daily chart, the pair's quotes performed a consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513), and then rebound from it. Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084).

GBP/USD - Weekly.

On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased.

Overview of fundamentals:

On Thursday, there were no economic reports in the UK, so all the attention of traders was turned to the reports in the US. The GDP data was disappointing, so the British dollar was able to show growth again.

News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

US - main index of personal consumption expenditures (13:30 GMT).

US - change in the level of household spending (13:30 GMT).

US - Chicago PMI (14:45 GMT).

On January 29, the calendar of economic events in the UK is again empty, however, there will be no important reports in America either. Only minor ones.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

The latest COT report from January 19 showed not too big changes in the mood of major traders. The most interesting category of "Non-commercial" traders for the reporting period reduced 2,020 long contracts and 3,105 short contracts. Thus, it can even be said that the mood of speculators has become more "bullish". Nevertheless, it was again about reducing the number of contracts, not increasing them. The Briton is still a "dark horse" for major players, from which it is unclear what to expect in the coming years. Now the pound is growing and has been growing for a long time and this is even more alarming, given the problems of the British economy. However, based only on the COT report, so far we can only conclude that the growth of the British dollar can continue.

Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:

It is recommended to make new purchases of the British dollar at the rebound from the level of 1.3698 on the hourly chart with targets of 1.3744 and 1.3820. It is recommended to sell the pound sterling when closing quotes under the trend line on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.3522 and 1.3481.

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.