FX.co ★ Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 01/26/2021

Just a glimpse at the charts is enough to understand that the pound and the single European currency are clearly overbought, or perhaps, Eurozone's economies are doing just fine compared to the United States. But if this is so, then what is the reason for their gradual decline amid an entirely empty macroeconomic calendar? Thus, we will turn aside the second option, which will lead us to another simple conclusion. The European currencies can only stay at the current values if they receive support in the form of good macroeconomic statistics. However, it should be highlighted that we are only talking about keeping current positions. There is no need to think about any noticeable growth, as it can only be local. So, it is still necessary to consider the decline of the single European currency with the pound even in the medium term.

If we talk about macroeconomic statistics, then great data on the UK labor market is ahead of us. Here, the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.9% to 5.1%. It is worth recalling that the unemployment rate in the US and Europe are declining despite the high values. But in the UK, there is an opposite trend. Some people will not be pleased, since there will be a clear decline. Nevertheless, the scale of the decline will not be so significant, as the pound will be supported by data on wages, the growth rate of which may increase from 2.8% to 3.0%.

However, this only shows once again that the markets are disconnected from the reality in which the vast majority of people live. After all, if the unemployment rate increases at the same time as wages increase, this clearly indicates that the least paid workers are losing their jobs, namely simple hard workers and employees who are the vast majority. Meanwhile, all sorts of leaders and the like, keep their places.

Employers are cutting their costs by reducing ordinary employees, but this does not apply to the highest paid positions. In other words, the poorest pays for the crisis. And from a global perspective, this is an extremely negative trend that can have long-term consequences that no one will like. Unfortunately, the markets look at it in a very different way.

Unemployment rate (UK):

The EUR/USD pair shows a downward activity after it found the resistance level of 1.2190. Considering the recent decline, there is a temporary support at 1.2115, around which a pullback occurred. To continue the downward trend, market participants need to stay below the level of 1.2110, which will open the way to 1.2080. Otherwise, a variable amplitude in the range of 1.2130/1.2170 may occur.

The GBP/USD pair headed towards Friday's low at 1.3635 after the price rebounded from the high of the mid-term trend. As a result, a slight slowdown occurred. If the price stays below 1.3635, a path will open in the direction of 1.3600-1.3550.