Early in the American section, the euro managed to sharply break the symmetrical triangle that had been formed since March 9. The pair is currently trading at 1.1098 around the 200 EMA and around the resistance of 3/8 Murray.
Positive developments regarding the Russo-Ukrainian war and peace talks favored the EUR/USD pair which is currently extending its gains, advancing towards 1.1100.
Peace talks in Turkey surprised with progress, as Moscow said it would sharply reduce, but not stop, military activity around Kyiv and Chernihiv to create conditions for a dialogue.
A break above 1.1108 and a daily close above this level would open the door for a move to 4/8 Murray located at 1.1230 and the price could even cover the gap left at the end of February around 1.1272.
The negative medium-term outlook for EUR/USD is expected to remain unchanged below the key 200 EMA today at 1.1500.
If the euro cannot consolidate above 1.1108 in the next few hours, a technical correction is likely to follow below the EMA 200 and the pair could fall towards the 21 SMA located at 1.0995.
A good buying opportunity would be to wait for a technical bounce around 2/8 Murray located at 1.0986 or around 21 SMA located at 1.0995, with targets at 1.1108, 1.1230, and up to 1.1272 (GAP).
On the contrary, if gold and the euro trade again below 2/8 Murray located at 1.0986, EUR/USD could resume the downward movement and reach the area 1.0800.
Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell below 1.1108 with targets at 1.0995. The eagle indicator is giving a positive signal, so we expect a correction around the psychological level of 1.1000 to buy.