FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on December 18, 2020

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the euro formed the expected divergence on the daily chart with a transition above the target level of 1.2230. Whether it would continue to rise to 1.2330 is a big question, but taking Friday into account, investors may prefer to close positions, which will cause the euro to fall. Christmas is next week. For these holidays, US Congressmen are approaching an optimistic mood - the main points on the second stimulus package for $900 billion have been agreed.

It is widely believed that with the expansion of stimulus, the dollar will continue to weaken, but the current situation is different from the previous ones. With the expansion of the ECB's balance sheet, the euro will devalue rather, as the attraction of dollars in the US through external loans to finance a new stimulus package (capital repatriation) and less convenient conditions for keeping money in Europe will increase the demand for the dollar.

Apparently, the collapse of the balance of payments in the second quarter has weakened the dollar, but this situation will change in the near future.

The four-hour chart shows that the Marlin oscillator shows the first signs of a reversal, but this is not enough, the price must go below the 1.2175 level in order to be under the MACD line and the oscillator will move into a zone of negative values. In the meantime, the trading situation is neutral, we are waiting for the formation of reversal conditions.