FX.co ★ Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on December 14. COT report. Analysis of Friday. Recommendations for Monday

EUR/USD 15M

The linear regression channels are directed in different directions on the 15-minute timeframe, however, by and large, they are not important now, since they can change their direction very often in a flat, which does not mean a trend change on the hourly timeframe. And there is a flat on the hourly timeframe, so focus is on it.

EUR/USD 1H

The euro/dollar pair continued to trade inside the horizontal channel on the hourly timeframe of December 11, which is shown in the chart as a large red rectangle. And so the pair's quotes have been within the one hundred point range for ten days. This indicates a flat. A flat near two-and-a-half-year highs. The US currency stubbornly refuses to adjust, and the bears remain extremely weak. Therefore, everything depends on the buyers now. If they decide to make new buy positions at a certain point in time, the upward trend will resume. Meanwhile, the fundamental background still has no effect on trading. In order to identify the return of the upward trend, you need to wait for it to settle above the channel. For a possible downward correction, you need to wait for the pair to settle below the channel. For a downward trend – below the channel and below the Senkou Span B line.

COT report

The EUR/USD pair increased by 180 points in the last reporting week (December 1-7), which is quite a lot for it. Well, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report for the same period showed an increase in net position among non-commercial traders for the third consecutive time. This means that professional market players are becoming more bullish again and are looking towards buying the euro. Although all they did was cut their long positions on the euro from the very beginning of September. But the fact remains. So far, instead of the end of the upward trend, we have seen it return, which, however, does not really change anything in the current situation. A group of non-commercial traders opened 12,736 Buy-contracts (longs) and closed 278 Sell-contracts (shorts) during the reporting week. Thus, the net position increased by 13,000. Both indicators began to show an increase again, which signals that the upward movement will continue. However, the green and red lines of the first indicator are still far enough from each other, which is a signal that the upward trend will end soon. The euro remains extremely overbought, its growth can best be described by the word speculative. Therefore, we are waiting for the upward trend to end. And in any case, you need to wait for technical signals.

The only report that was published on Friday was the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index. It exceeded the forecasted value, so the EUR/USD pair's decline in the afternoon may even be attributed to this report. However, in general, the pair remains inside the horizontal channel, so this report does not make any sense. Moreover, market participants ignored the results of the ECB meeting the day before, the fact that the EU budget and recovery fund were unblocked, as well as US inflation. Thus, we are forced to admit that the foundation continues to be ignored. All hope remains only for the bears and that they will nevertheless get involved with the work until the end of 2020. Although so far everything looks as if we will see an upward trend again. Despite the fundamental background that is not in favor of the euro. Despite it being overbought and that there is no correction. Despite COT reports.

No macroeconomic reports planned for the United States on Monday, and the EU will release only one report on industrial production. No more important fundamental topics now, as the EU summit and the ECB meeting have both passed. In recent days, there has been news that several states in America have supported Texas's lawsuit over Joe Biden's illegal election victory. However, to be honest, it is hard to believe that this time the class action lawsuit will reach the US Supreme Court. Donald Trump, as we can see, does not abandon attempts to turn the election results in his favor, but so far he does not look like a person capable of changing them.

We have two trading ideas for December 14:

1) Buyers continue to own the initiative, but now there is also a horizontal channel, which is clearly visible in the chart. Therefore, you are advised to resume trading upward while aiming for resistance levels of 1.2224 and 1.2328 after breaking its upper line. Take Profit in this case can range from 30 to 130 points. At this time, we can describe the pair's movement as flat.

2) Bears remain very weak at this time and cannot even correct the pair yet, however, the fundamental background allows them to hope for a downward movement. At the same time, one should wait for serious confirmation of their intentions in order to start trading down. We advise you to wait until we surpass the rising channel and the Senkou Span B line (1.2029). And only after that should you consider the possibility of opening sell-positions while aiming for the support area of 1.1886-1.1912 and the support level of 1.1820.

Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.