FX.co ★ EUR/USD: plan for the American session on December 9 (analysis of morning deals)

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.2135 and recommended making a decision from it. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see that the unsuccessful attempt of the bulls to break above this range and return to this level formed a good sell signal, which is still working at the moment. Several tests of the level of 1.2135 from the bottom up were good points for opening short positions. So far, the movement has been no more than 15 points, however, this is enough to move stop orders to this level, especially considering how low volatility has been observed recently. The lack of important fundamental statistics on the Eurozone and important Brexit negotiations remain the main reason that the pair is in a narrow side channel.

From a technical point of view, nothing has changed, and buyers of the European currency still need to try hard to break above yesterday's resistance of 1.2135. The first attempt was unsuccessful. Only a test of this level over and down after the breakdown forms a good signal to open long positions in the expectation of continuing the upward trend that is currently observed in the market. The main target will be to return to the highs of last week in the area of 1.2177, which has already been tested twice for strength. The fact that the bulls did not achieve an update to this level yesterday also threatens the continuation of the upward trend. Therefore, only a break of 1.2177 will lead to the continued growth of EUR/USD already in the area of highs of 1.2255 and 1.2339, where I recommend fixing the profits. However, this will only happen if there is good news about the final Brexit negotiations, which will be held today in Brussels between British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. If the euro declines in the second half of the day, only the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.2099 will be a signal to open long positions. I recommend buying the pair immediately for a rebound only from the level of 1.2046, based on a correction of 20-25 points within the day. A larger support level is seen around 1.1986. A test of this low will lead to a reversal of the upward trend in the short term.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to:

The sellers of the pound have already achieved the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2135, and as long as trading is carried out below this range, we can expect a continuation of the downward correction to the area of the minimum at 1.2099, below which it was not possible to breakthrough yesterday. Only a consolidation below this range with a test from the bottom up will be a good signal to sell EUR / USD to the area of a large minimum at 1.2046, and a further target of the bears will be to close the day in the support area at 1.1986, which will seriously affect the upward trend. If EUR/USD rises above the resistance of 1.2135, it is better not to rush into sales. Good news on the trade agreement is sure to lead to a major increase in the pair. In this scenario, you can only count on short positions from the resistance of 1.2177, provided that a false breakout is formed. Larger highs are seen in the area of 1.2255, from where you can sell EUR/USD immediately for a rebound with the aim of a downward correction of 15-20 points within the day. Given that high volatility and sharp movements of the euro are expected today, do not forget about placing stop orders, which will allow you to avoid losses if you enter the market incorrectly.

Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for December 1 recorded an increase in long and a reduction in short positions. Buyers of risky assets believe in the continuation of the bull market, and in the further growth of the euro after breaking the psychological mark in the area of the 20th figure. For example, long non-profit positions rose from 206,354 to 207,302, while short non-profit positions fell to 67,407 from 68,104. the total non-profit net position rose to 139,894 from 138,250 a week earlier. It is worth paying attention to the growth of the delta, observed for the second week in a row, after its 8-week decline, which indicates a clear advantage for buyers and a possible resumption of the medium-term upward trend for the euro. It will be possible to talk about a larger recovery only after European leaders agree with the UK on a new trade agreement. However, we did not get any good news last week, and we have an EU summit ahead of us, which will put the final point in this story. The euro will be supported by news about the lifting of restrictive measures for the Christmas holidays, as well as the absence of major changes in the monetary policy of the European Central Bank.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted around 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the sideways nature of the market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A break in the lower limit of the indicator around 1.2099 will lead to a larger decline in the pound. A break of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2135 will lead to an upward trend of the pair.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.