FX.co ★ Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 11/23/2020

The scale of fluctuations of the single European currency was less than fifty points last Friday. And this is from top to bottom. In a good way, this can be safely called trampling on the spot. Of course, we can refer to the fact that no data has been published in the European Union and the United States. However, last week the market essentially stood still, although some macroeconomic data were published during this time. Quite simply, the market continues to be indecisive due to the uncertainty about the outcome of the US presidential elections. The political turmoil is forcing investors to remain cautious.

Most likely, there will be little activity in the market today, and no changes will be noticed at the end. Yes, the euro may slightly lose ground in the first half of the day, under the influence of preliminary data on PMIs. After all, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector may fall from 54.8 to 53.6. The index of business activity in the service sector should completely drop from 46.9 to 43.7. This will lead to the fact that the composite PMI will decline from 50.0 to 46.1, that is, drop below the mark separating growth from stagnation.

Composite PMI (Europe):

Nevertheless, the euro will calmly win back all its losses in the US session. Indeed, all business activity indices are also expected to decline in the United States. The preliminary estimate should show a decrease in the business activity index in the manufacturing sector from 53.4 to 52.9, and in the service sector from 56.9 to 55.1. As a result, the composite PMI should decline from 56.3 to 54.5. And yes, US indices are noticeably higher than European ones, but the trend is exactly the same. We are only talking about a decline in business activity.

Composite PMI (United States):

The EURUSD pair has been standing in one place for almost a week, where 1.1895 coordinates serve as a resistance, while the 1.1810 level serves as a variable support. Uncertain price fluctuations strongly influence dynamics, where the average volatility is only 50 points, which is a low value. In fact, market participants are in a kind of cumulative process.

If we proceed from the quote's current location, then we can see that the movement is carried out along a previously specified trajectory, where the boundaries of 1.1810/1.1895 are still considered the main coordinates.

Considering the trading chart in general terms (daily period), we can see that there has been an upward movement in the market since the beginning of November, where the euro has already managed to gain more than 280 points.

We can see that main market changes will occur after the breakdown of one or another border of the established range of 1.1810/1.1895, but as long as the frames are in place, market participants will continue to move along the established trajectory.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments on minute and hourly intervals signal a buy, due to price fluctuations within the upper part of the established range. The daily period is focused on the main upward trend, signaling a buy.