FX.co ★ EU GDP may drop by 0.3%-0.4% due to Ukraine war

At the meeting in Paris, Philip Lane made an assumption that the conflict in Ukraine may cut eurozone economic growth by 0.3%-0.4%. The announcement was made just a few hours after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine.

This is the " middle scenario " of the economic situation. Lane presented a tougher scenario as well, under which GDP might fall by almost 1%, and a light version, when the current situation has no impact on the monetary block. But this scenario is considered unlikely.

All these forecasts are quite vague, so Lane says he will give a more precise estimate at the March 10 meeting, at which the ECB is to make a decision on the future of its stimulus program.

Lane did not present new inflation forecasts, but he told delegates at the meeting that the 2022 outlook will be significantly increased, with a hint that estimates at the end of the horizon could still be below the ECB's target level of 2%.

The ECB's forecast horizon currently extends to 2024.