FX.co ★ EUR/USD analysis 22/10/2020: US Dollar reacts to Trump's reduced chances of a second term

The wave marking of the EUR/USD instrument still looks quite convincing and has not changed at all recently. The main option remains to increase quotes from the current levels within the framework of building wave 5 with goals located above the maximum of the expected wave 3 or C. This means that the instrument will increase to at least 20 figures with a probability of increasing higher. Wave 5 has already taken a rather complex form, since its internal wave structure is not similar to the standard pulse one.

The smaller-scale wave marking still shows that the intended wave 4 has assumed a three-wave form and is complete. If this is true, then the price increase will continue within wave 5. In recent days, there were some doubts about the execution of this particular option but the unsuccessful attempt to break the 23.6% Fibonacci mark indirectly indicated the readiness of the markets for new purchases of the Euro currency. However, the assumed wave 5 has rather complicated its internal wave structure and may turn out to be very long. It already traces waves 1 and 2.

The Euro continues to be in demand in the foreign exchange market. Almost any decline in the US Dollar's quotes can now be associated with the upcoming presidential election and a very high probability of losing to Donald Trump. The US President set one of his goals to make the dollar cheaper. This would make it easier for the government to service the huge national debt and make the country could trade more profitably with international partners. However, over the past 4 years, the Dollar has grown more than it has fallen. Thus, it is logical to assume that with the fall in Trump's chances of re-election, the American's quotes will also fall. This is exactly what we see in the foreign exchange market right now. Neither the Pound nor the Euro is currently supported by the news background. Even from America, there is no absolutely negative news or statistics. However, the Euro has been rising for three days in a row and it is not clear whether it will stop there.

Today, the situation may be the same as in the last few days. Markets are not expecting any news from the EU or the US today. At least, the news calendars of these countries are completely empty, except for insignificant reports and events. However, there is no doubt that today's trading will be quite active.

General conclusions and recommendations:

The Euro-Dollar pair is expected to continue building a 3-in-5 wave. Thus, at this time, I still recommend buying a tool with targets located near the estimated 1.2012 mark (which corresponds to 0.0% Fibonacci) for each MACD signal up, in the expectation of building an upward wave. The option with a possible complication of the internal wave structure of wave 4 was not confirmed so I do not expect a decrease in the instrument's quotes in the near future.