FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on October 5, 2020

EUR/USD

US President Donald Trump has contracted the coronavirus and this information was announced last Friday. Trump was isolated in the White House, and later hospitalized. The first reaction to the news was a moderate rise in the dollar. In addition, the threat of severe quarantine looms over Spain and Great Britain.

US employment data was mixed. The unemployment rate dropped from 8.4% to 7.9% against the expectation of 8.2%, but the share of the economically active population fell from 61.7% to 61.4%. In the non-agricultural sector, 661,000 new jobs were created against the forecast of 850,000 (although the August figure was revised up from 1,371,000 to 1,489,000). After some deliberation, investors decided that the data was more positive than negative (in particular, the manufacturing sector of the industry received 66,000 jobs against 35,000 expected) and so they began to buy dollars.

The daily chart shows that the euro turned down from the 1.1754 benchmark. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator confirms this reversal, and the line reversed exactly from the upper border of its own channel. We are waiting for the euro to fall to 1.1650, then towards 1.1550.

The Marlin oscillator is neutral, moving along its own zero line on the four-hour chart. The signal line going into the negative zone will push the price to attack the support of the MACD line (1.1685), going under it will open the first target at 1.1650, settling below this level will open the second target at 1.1550.