FX.co ★ Analysis of GBP/USD on October 2. The fall in unemployment in the United States.

In most global terms, the construction of a downward section of the trend continues. However, the departure of quotes from the reached lows suggests that the entire section of the trend, which begins on September 1, has taken a three-wave form and is already completed. At least it looks convincing enough. If this assumption is correct, then the current positions may continue to increase quotes within the new upward wave as part of the upward section of the trend that begins on March 19. Naturally, in this case, it will take an even more complex and extended form.

On closer inspection, it is clear that the wave marking really took a three-wave form and at the same time looks quite convincing. Moreover, the departure of quotes from the reached lows really suggests that the markets are ready to build a new upward trend. However, it is now quite difficult to say what form it will take and whether it will be a continuation of the section of the trend that began on March 19.

Several important economic reports have been released in America today. The number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector was only 661 thousand, although the markets expected to see a value of 850 thousand. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate in America fell to 7.9%, and the average hourly wage increased by 0.1%. It is difficult to say whether this package of statistics is positive or negative. One thing is certain that the British are more interested in other news related to Brexit and the European Union. According to the latest data, Brussels is going to sue London over the controversial bill "on the internal market". This information, announced yesterday by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, led to serious exchange rate changes over the past day. In total, the pound lost even a few dozen points, and its prospects are very difficult to characterize. The news background in the UK is extremely heavy at this time. London is making life very difficult for itself, and there is simply no chance of signing a free trade agreement. And if you take into account the second wave of coronavirus, which did not bypass Britain, it becomes quite sad. Boris Johnson has already said that the country is in a critical condition. Other politicians and doctors agree. So far, the only thing that saves the pound from a new decline is the fact that America also has a whole bunch of problems. Therefore, as in the case of the euro currency, I recommend starting at this time on the wave markup. So far, it assumes the construction of a new upward section of the trend. The three-wave structure a-b-c looks too convincing.

General conclusions and recommendations:

The pound/dollar instrument presumably completed the construction of a downward trend section. However, at the same time, the instrument can move in any direction from the current positions, complicating any part of the trend. So far, I am more inclined to resume the construction of the upward trend, however, the news background from the UK and the US is so contradictory that it is completely unclear what conclusions the majority will draw and in which direction the markets will decide to move in the near future.