FX.co ★ Analysis of EUR/USD on October 2. Inflation in the European Union continues to slow down.

The wave marking of the EUR/USD instrument in global terms still looks quite convincing. According to the current wave pattern, the expected wave 4 as part of the upward trend section could have already completed its construction. The upward section of the trend can still take a longer 5-wave form. This scenario requires only a strong news background for the euro and a weak one for the dollar. So far, this is exactly what it is now.

The smaller-scale wave marking shows that three smaller-order waves were built inside the assumed wave 4, and three more waves of an even smaller order were built inside the assumed wave b or 4. Thus, the entire wave 4 may already be completed. If this is true, then the increase in quotes will continue from the current levels with targets located above the peak of wave 3 or C. How much higher will depend on the news background for the instrument.

The next trading week on the Forex market is coming to an end. During this week, the euro/dollar instrument presumably completed its decline. So now I'm waiting for the price increase to resume. The news background throughout the week was quite disorderly. Markets spent most of the week debating the outcome of the debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. However, according to many media and experts, this was the most disastrous and shameful debate in the history of the United States. I can't say that they affected the movement of the instrument in any way. Most likely, it was just an interesting event. Meanwhile, the situation with the coronavirus in America is not improving in any way and it is getting worse in the European Union. The EU government has already announced the beginning of the second wave of the pandemic, with some countries, such as Spain and France, recording very high levels of disease, up to 30,000 cases a day. For comparison, in America, about 40,000 cases continue to be recorded daily. However, comparing the number of residents of the United States and France does not make sense. Thus, the Eurozone is moving towards a deterioration of the epidemiological situation, and at the same time the economic situation, since it is naive to believe that the second wave of the epidemic will not leave a mark on the economy. I would say that so far the euro currency is just on the edge, but it can collapse at any moment. It keeps afloat because of America and the US dollar. Let me remind you that the US economy collapsed even more seriously in the second quarter, and Congress cannot agree on a new package of stimulus measures that will help it continue to recover. Also in the United States, the date of the presidential election is approaching, and today it became known that US President Donald Trump and his wife were infected with the coronavirus. In general, the whole world continues to be covered by the COVID-2019 virus, and in the current conditions it is impossible to make a forecast for any tool for a month or more. I recommend starting from wave marking as a more objective and unambiguous type of analysis at this time, rather than a fundamental one. The increase in quotes means that the news background should not be against the euro and the dollar.

General conclusions and recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair presumably completed the construction of the global wave 3 or C and wave 4. Thus, at this time, I recommend buying a tool with targets located near the calculated mark of 1.2012, which corresponds to 0.0% Fibonacci, for each MACD signal up, in the calculation of the construction of the global wave 5.