FX.co ★ EUR/USD: plan for the American session on September 22

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

In my morning forecast, I paid quite important attention to the level of 1.1737 and the divergence that was formed on the MACD indicator, and warned that sales below the level of 1.1737 may be unsafe. On the 5-minute chart, the bears reached a breakout of 1.1737 and even formed a good entry point for short positions from this level, after which the pair went down about 15 points and stopped. This was the first call about an attempt to form a false breakdown by buyers. Now it is clear that the bulls have regained the range of 1.1737, and as long as trading is conducted above this level, we can expect the euro to grow in the short term. Thus, the scenario has not changed in comparison with the morning forecast. We can expect the continuation of the upward correction to the resistance area of 1.1779, where I recommend taking the profit. The longer-range target will be a maximum of 1.1826, however, it will be quite difficult to reach it. If the pressure on the euro returns in the second half of the day, and the pair again falls below the level of 1.1737, I recommend postponing purchases until the new local minimum of 1.1695 is tested or opening long positions immediately for a rebound from the larger support of 1.1648, based on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Sellers of the euro will do everything to re-achieve a consolidation below the range of 1.1737, however, it is best to sell under this level only after testing this area from the bottom up, similar to the morning entry point that I described above. In this case, the divergence on the MACD indicator is unlikely to help with anything, which will lead to a wave of decline in EUR/USD to the area of the lows of 1.1695 and 1.1648, where I recommend fixing profits. A poor report on the consumer confidence indicator in the Eurozone will help the bears cope with this task. If there is no activity on the part of sellers at the level of 1.1737 and the pair grows in the second half of the day, I recommend that you postpone sales and wait for the resistance test of 1.1779, where you can open short positions immediately for a rebound based on a downward correction of 20-30 points within the day.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates continued pressure on the euro and the formation of a bear market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In the case of an upward correction of the pair, the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1779 will act as a resistance. A break of the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1730 will increase the pressure on the pair.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.