FX.co ★ EUR/USD analysis on September 21. As America prepares for the presidential election, China hopes for Joe Biden's victory

The wave marking of the EUR/USD instrument still looks quite convincing in global terms. A sharp decline in the instrument's quotes began, which suggests that the markets are not ready to resume the upward section of the trend. Thus, the assumed wave 4 may take a more complex form than a three-wave one. If this assumption is correct, then the decline in quotes will continue, although the main option now is to resume building the upward section of the trend and its wave 5.

The smaller-scale wave layout shows that three smaller-scale waves have already been built inside the assumed wave 4. Thus, the decline in quotes can be continued within the fifth wave of 4, but then this wave will take a non-standard and extended form. However, before a successful attempt to break through the minimum of the expected wave 3 or C in 4, it is premature to talk about the complexity of the entire wave 4.

The beginning of the new trading week for the US currency was very positive. While it is difficult to say what is the reason behind the increase in dollar quotes by 50 basis points, nevertheless, it is available. However, this decrease has no effect on the wave pattern. So far, wave 4 cannot be considered either complete or complicated. Thus, 50 points of decline can generally be considered market noise. For the market, all the same topics continue to matter as before. The coronavirus, the presidential election, the development of a vaccine, the confrontation with China - it is extremely difficult not to note how sharply the topic of the trade war with China has faded into the background. If earlier news on this topic was received with enviable regularity, Beijing and Washington regularly exchanged accusations and sanctions. Now, everything is quiet and calm, as if there was no confrontation. In fact, this is very strange, because there was no truce between the parties. It seems that both Donald Trump and the Chinese "elite" are just waiting for the results of the November 3 election and their expectations are radically opposite. I said earlier that China is almost openly supporting Joe Biden. This is absolutely expected, since it was Donald Trump who started the trade war against China, which affected both China and America too. So, the Chinese are hoping for a democratic victory. Based on the latest data, Donald Trump has collected almost $ 325 million in campaign donations, while Joe Biden also managed to attract half a billion dollars. Recent support ratings also speak in favor of Joe Biden. Therefore,

General conclusions and recommendations:

The Euro-Dollar pair presumably completed the construction of the global wave 3 or C and the second corrective wave as part of the trend section that begins on September 1. Thus, at this time, I still recommend selling the instrument with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.1706 and 1.1520, which corresponds to 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci, for each MACD signal down. However, it is also possible that wave 4 has already been completed.