FX.co ★ Hot forecast and trading recommendations for GBPUSD on 09/21/2020

A completely empty macroeconomic calendar and stagnation in the market. It looks like investors are preparing for a new round of talks on the trade deal between Brussels and London. However, risks to the pound seem to be incredibly high. After all, the House of Commons approved the UK Internal Market Bill, making only one significant amendment to it. And if it was initially assumed that the ministries themselves can unilaterally impose certain restrictions on the movement of goods, then in the final version they would need approval from the House of Commons. But the previous round of negotiations broke down due to the fact that the European Union is fundamentally not satisfied with the very question of introducing such a bill. And since the House of Commons has accepted everything, the logical step would be for the House of Lords to approve or reject this bill. Just before a new round of talks begin. However, the House of Lords remain silent. No decision has been made. It turns out that a serious threat looms over the negotiations in the form of uncertainty with the UK Internal Market Bill. This is very much like blackmail. Britain shows that if the EU is not compliant, then the House of Lords will pass this law at any time. Well, if everything goes well, from the point of view of London, the upper house of Parliament will reject it.

The trouble is that over the past few years Brussels has clearly shown how it treats blackmail and other tricks - the EU simply suspends negotiations. After all, the EU has an advantage. Even if Brexit goes through the worst-case scenario, that is, without a trade deal, Brussels will be the beneficiary. Simply put, it has a much stronger position. On the other hand, London is trying to somehow smooth out the subsequent economic consequences and is constantly prolonging the process, and also arranges similar acts, as with the UK Internal Market Bill. The fact is that Brexit without a deal is extremely unprofitable for London. But the version of the agreement that Brussels is proposing is possibly even worse. So, its essence boils down to the fact that due to the absence of a border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, which is regulated outside the framework of the EU, the UK remains in the single European market. However, the United Kingdom will not have the opportunity to somehow influence the decision-making on customs duties, quotas and the like. And due to the much smaller volume of the domestic market, Great Britain is in a subordinate position. So London's position is initially losing, and it is only about reducing damage. And the fact that the issue over the UK Internal Market Bill remains unsolved can also play a bad joke, bringing the unregulated Brexit closer.

The GBPUSD pair keeps moving below the psychological level of 1.3000, having consistent rebounds and a variable range around 100 points. Such ambiguous behavior in the correction phase is probably caused by the information background, which puts pressure on market participants and does not allow them to fully tune in to a certain market move.

Based on the quote's current location, you can see a local upward movement during the Asian session, but it is only a variable value in the range of 1.2900/1.3000.

A slight slowdown is recorded in relation to the general volatility, which is still unnoticeable behind the high speculative activity.

Considering the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, we can see a correctional movement from the support level of 1.2770, where the psychological value at 1.3000 will be the resistance.

We can assume that the variable fluctuation within the values of 1.2900/1.3000 is a temporary phenomenon, the market is preparing for something more, perhaps waiting for details on the information and news flow. The most optimal tactic is considered to be the method of breaking through the established boundaries, along with detecting the main move.

From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see that indicators of technical instruments at hourly intervals have a neutral signal, moving along the trajectory of stagnation. The daily interval, as before, indicates a sell signal, due to the inertia move from September 1.