FX.co ★ EUR/USD. September 18. COT report. The topic of coronavirus is coming to the fore again.

EUR/USD – 1H.

On September 17, the EUR/USD pair continued the growth process and ended it at the moment near the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1857). Thus, the pair's quotes returned to the level from which the fall began two days ago, caused by the Fed meeting and its results. Now, a rebound from the Fibo level of 61.8% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a resumption of the fall towards the levels of 76.4% and 100.0%, and a close above it will increase the chances of continuing growth towards the Fibo levels of 50.0% and 38.2%. Meanwhile, the topic of coronavirus is once again coming out on top of the world. In America, a new increase in the number of cases has begun. According to the Johns Hopkins Institute, 40-45 thousand Americans get sick every day, which is not much less than the maximum values that were recorded a few weeks ago. This made Anthony Fauci, doctors, and epidemiologists of the country sound the alarm. Donald Trump promises that a vaccine against COVID-2019 can be created and approved as early as October. At the same time, some categories of Americans who need the vaccine the most may begin to be vaccinated. And as usual, Trump's words were immediately criticized by Anthony Fauci, who "doubts that the vaccine will be created before December 2020 and will go into mass production before 2021". A statement was also made by Bill Gates, who also expressed doubt that at least one of the vaccines will be approved during October. Trump's push to get the vaccine in October is clear as day. Trump needs a vaccine to win the November 3, 2020 election.

EUR/USD – 4H.

On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the euro currency near the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729) and began the process of growth towards the upper border of the side corridor, in which the pair has been trading for several months. Closing the pair's rate above the side corridor will work in favor of continuing growth towards the next Fibo level of 161.8% (1.2027).

EUR/USD – Daily.

On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed another reversal in favor of the EU currency and fixed above the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1825), which does not mean much, because the quotes continue to remain in the blue rectangle, which perfectly reflects the flat. The pair's quotes are fixed under the upward trend corridor, which slightly increases the probability of continuing the fall. However, the key remains the side corridor.

EUR/USD – Weekly.

On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has completed a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which now allows us to count on further growth of the euro currency, which may be strong, but in the long term.

Overview of fundamentals:

On September 17, the European Union released a report on inflation, which again showed a very weak and negative value. Unemployment in America continues to decline. Traders ignored both reports – the euro was growing.

The news calendar for the United States and the European Union:

On September 18, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and the United States are completely empty. Thus, the influence of the information background will be absent today.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

The latest COT report was very interesting. According to the results of the previous report, major traders of the "Non-commercial" group closed about 11 thousand long contracts. The latest COT report showed a reduction of another 3.7 thousand purchase contracts. At the same time, speculators increased their sales contracts. Thus, the last two COT reports show that the mood of the most important group of traders (speculators) is beginning to change in the direction of "bearish". The "Commercial" group actively got rid of both long contracts and short contracts, closing almost 40,000 in total. All major players in the foreign exchange market got rid of 69 thousand contracts during the reporting week. Thus, I can conclude that the trend is beginning to change and major players are starting to look at purchases of the US dollar.

Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:

Today, I recommend selling the euro with a target of 1.1762, if a rebound is made from the upper line of the side corridor on the 4-hour chart or from the level of 61.8% (1.1857) on the hourly chart. I recommend buying the pair if it closes above the side corridor on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.2027.

Terms:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.