FX.co ★ Latest COT report (Commitments of Traders). Weekly outlook for EUR/USD

The second COT reporting in a row shows a decline in interest in the European currency. According to the COT report (Commitments of Traders on 09/08/20), open interest in the euro fell to 690782 (-7429). At the same time, all leading major players showed a reduction in positions both in the long and short directions (Non-Commercial: long -2184 - short -2251; Commercial: long -7495 - short -10031; Total position: long -6704 - short -9307; Dealer Intermediary: long -2290 - short -12824). As a result, net positions have declined, which definitely weakens the current priorities.

The main conclusion

The next report confirms the conclusions made earlier. Major players continue to reduce the number of contracts and take a wait-and-see attitude on the euro, not expressing any clear investment preferences. All this contributes to the preservation and amplification of uncertainty.

Technical picture

The wait-and-see attitude of major players has affected the technique of the euro movement in recent years. The pair continues to be above one of the important supports of this area at 1.1740 (the lower border of the monthly cloud), while the Ichimoku cloud is an area of uncertainty and contemplation. On the other hand, a long opposition and the absence of a directional movement delayed the development of the upward movement, the main reference point of which is the rise to the upper border of the cloud (1.2167), in order to consolidate in the bullish zone relative to it. During the current consolidation, the preferences of the lower time intervals have changed. In the daily time frame, a dead cross of Ichimoku is formed today, which prefers the strengthening of bearish moods. The main task of downside players to resume the decline is now to overcome the strengthened support zone at 1.1740-00 (the lower border of the monthly cloud + weekly short-term trend + daily cloud). The center of attraction is currently the daily cross of 1.1840-60 and consolidating higher can serve as a further restoration of positions by players to increase and return their plans.

The key levels of the lower halves are now in a horizontal position, which confirms the uncertainty and the absence of a clear priority even on hourly TF. Nevertheless, the pair is above the weekly long-term trend (1.1818), which means that bulls have some current advantage. At the same time, the resistance of the classic pivot levels 1.1876 - 1.1907 - 1.1939 serves as upward guidance within the day. A consolidation below the current support zone 1.1844-18 (central pivot level + weekly long-term trend) will affect the current balance of power, and in this case, the next supports can be noted at 1.1781 (S2) and 1.1750 (S3).

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (Classic), Moving Average (120)