FX.co ★ Hot forecast and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on 09/14/2020

In theory, the single European currency should have declined on Friday, but a member of the executive committee of the European Central Bank Isabelle Schnabel was able to raise interest in the euro for some time. Her presentation itself is of no practical interest. Except for just one thing. Schnabel said that it is necessary to introduce common European bonds in order to achieve financial stability in the euro area. That is, the countries of the euro area should abandon their own government bonds, since the yield on them is completely different and this leads to imbalances, due to which many financial problems arise. Simply put, the ECB is bringing this topic back into the field of public debate and calls on European countries to further integrate. According to the views of the ECB itself, and most investors, this will give a huge positive economic effect. So the growth of optimism is quite reasonable.

Nevertheless, market participants calmed down after a while, as we are talking about appeals, and not about specific actions. They also remembered that US inflation data was about to be released. At the same time, the data should have come out quite good, as inflation was expected to rise from 1.0% to 1.2%. But investors were in for a pleasant surprise, as inflation rose to 1.3%. So the Federal Reserve will definitely not cut interest rates. Rather, it is worth waiting for talks about the possibility of its increase.

Inflation (United States):

Today will be a quieter day, as no speeches are planned, and macroeconomic data only has the report on industrial production in Europe. The rate of its decline may slow down from -12.3% to -7.6%. And although we are still talking about a recession in industry, the fact that the pace is slowing down amid current conditions is an extremely positive factor. Another thing is that the significance of this indicator is not so great. So the euro can slightly strengthen, but the scale of this will be extremely small.

Industrial production (Europe):

The euro/dollar pair managed to show both upward and downward activity last Friday. The price initially rebounded from the support level of 1.1810, in the direction of 1.1874, and then stabilized and retreated to 1.1826. In fact, a focus signal was received in the upper part of the flat of 1.1700/1.1810/1.1910.

Based on the quote's current location, you can see a low-range fluctuation with maximum deviations of 1.1826 and 1.1874.

With regard to market dynamics, an average level of activity is recorded, which may signal local stagnation.

Considering the trading chart in general terms (daily period), one can see the sideways movement of 1.1700/1.1810/1.1910 within which the quote develops.

We can assume that the 1.1826/1.1874 range will continue for some time, where the best trading tactic will be a breakout of one or another border, which will lead to a local jump in activity.

From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments on 1-minute intervals have a variable signal (Buy/Sell). Hourly and daily periods signal buy due to price rebounds off the channel's average.