FX.co ★ Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for 09/08/2020

If you look only at the single European currency, you get the feeling that nothing happened yesterday. It dropped slightly, but this can be explained by its already excessive overbought. Theoretically, all this is not surprising, since the macroeconomic calendar was completely empty, and Labor Day was celebrated in the United States, so they didn't work. However, one glance at the pound is enough to realize the fact that something happened yesterday. Indeed, everyone remembered Brexit again. In particular, Boris Johnson recalled it and began to scatter threats and ultimatums before the new round of negotiations between Great Britain and the European Union. The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom has blamed the lack of progress on a trade agreement on the vicious and greedy European Union once again. However, the funniest thing is that Boris Johnson also put forward a condition that if an agreement is not reached by October 15, which suits the UK, then Brexit will take place without a deal. In general, the market reaction, or rather the weakening of the pound, shows how investors feel about such statements, as well as how strong the position of the United Kingdom is.

The point is that it is precisely this development of events that suits the European Union. If an agreement is not reached, it means Britain's withdrawal from the free trade zone. Consequently, British companies will be forced to pay duties and taxes not as European companies, but as some African ones. The same is true for European companies operating in the British market, which seems that everyone loses from this. However, it is enough to look just at the map to understand that the scales are not comparable. British companies are suffering huge losses from the loss of the European market and they will not be able to compensate for these losses by increasing sales in the domestic market. It's just that there are about 60 million consumers in the UK, and there are more than 200 million in Europe. Nevertheless, European companies will gladly exchange their share in the British market – those places which are now occupied by companies from Britain on the continent. Due to this, no agreement has been reached for many years now. Europeans simply do not want to miss this chance to improve their financial affairs. In turn, investors are well aware of this, and so, the latest tantrums in London only showed once again how hopeless the UK is.

Today, the third estimate of Europe's GDP for the second quarter is being published, and given that it should confirm previous estimates, any reaction should not be expected. However, American traders had a rest yesterday, and their working week will begin with contemplation of data that the pace of economic recession in Europe has accelerated from -3.1% to -15.0%. Things like this are wonderful to cheer you up after a long weekend especially after you are also forced to work. Moreover, the Americans missed yesterday's fun, so there is a reason to catch up. This factor can contribute to a somewhat more noticeable strengthening of the dollar.

GDP (Europe):

The EUR/USD pair has a horizontal price movement within the borders of 1.1780/1.1865, where activity is reduced, and market participants are preparing for the upcoming acceleration in the event of a breakdown of a particular stagnation border. The best trading tactic is to break through borders.

The GBP/USD pair has a downward course from the local high of 2019, where the quote has already managed to decline by more than 300 points, and this is not yet the end. If the price consolidates below the level of 1.3100, the way will open in the direction of the psychological level 1.3000.