FX.co ★ EUR/USD: plan for the American session on September 3

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to:

In August, the Eurozone's services sector barely held back from starting to contract again amid a pullback, following a sharp surge in economic growth in the summer. Buyers of the European currency took advantage of this data and managed to regain the level of 1.1812. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about the signals that were generated in the first half of the day. The breakout and consolidation below the area of 1.1812 in the first half of the day led only to a small movement of the euro down, which was about 20 points. However, the divergence and fundamental data that I paid attention to in the morning forecast did not allow the bears to reach the support of 1.1765. After returning to the level of 1.1812, the bulls have already formed a comfortable entry point for long positions. Now the technical picture has completely changed. For a confident continuation of the upward correction, a breakout, and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1834 is required, which forms an additional entry point into long positions and will lead to a larger increase in EUR/USD to the area of the maximum of 1.1874, where the moving averages also pass. A more distant target will be the area of 1.1912, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the pressure on the euro returns in the afternoon after the ISM data for the US non-manufacturing sector and the labor market, it is best to postpone long positions until a false breakout is formed in the support area of 1.1792 or buy EUR/USD immediately for a rebound from the low of 1.1755 in the expectation of correction of 20-30 points within the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to:

Sellers need to protect the level of 1.1834 and only the next formation of a false breakout on it forms the entry point to short positions. A more difficult task will be to break through and consolidate below the support of 1.1792, which can only take place in the case of very good data on the US economy. This scenario forms an additional entry point into short positions, which will lead to an update of the minimum from August 21 in the area of 1.1755, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the movement continues to develop in the direction of euro purchases, and we will not see active sales from the resistance of 1.1834, it is best to postpone short positions until the update of the larger resistance of 1.1874 and open short positions from there in the expectation of a downward correction of 20-30 points within the day.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below the 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the further formation of a downward correction.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

If the euro rises in the second half of the day, short positions can be considered for a rebound from the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1865. Breaking the lower limit at 1.1800 will only increase the pressure on the euro.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.