FX.co ★ USD/JPY: downside scenario remains intact

The USD/JPY pair dropped in the short term as the Dollar Index has retreated and the Japanese Yen futures rallied. Technically, the pair maintains a bearish bias as long as it stays under the downtrend line.

Today, JPY received a helping hand from the Japanese Trade Balance which was reported at -0.44T versus -0.73T estimates. On the contrary, the USD was punished by the Unemployment Claims which reported an impressive growth from 231K to 286K, even if the specialists expected a potential drop to 227K. In addition, the Existing Home Sales reported worse than expected data as well.

USD/JPY Bearish Pressure!

The USD/JPY pair rebounded after its previous leg down, but the bounce back was only a temporary one. As long as it stays under the downtrend line and below the upper median line (UML), the currency pair is bearish and it could approch and reach new lows.

Testing and retesing the near-term resistance levels could bring new short opportunities. Failing to stay above the weekly pivot point (114.49) indicates bearish pressure. Only a valid breakout above the downtrend line could invalidate a downside continuation.

USD/JPY Prediction!

A false breakout above the immediate upside obstacles may announce a strong drop. The bias remains bearish as long as it's located below the downtrend line and under the upper median line (UML).

A new lower low, a bearish closure below 113.96 today's low could activate more declines.