FX.co ★ EUR/USD. August 13. COT report. In the near future, Donald Trump may "create" a vaccine. Bull traders again move the pair to 1.1908

EUR/USD – 1H.

Hello, traders! On August 12, the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the European currency and began a new growth process, having previously performed a consolidation over the downward trend line. Thus, at the moment, the mood of traders has changed again to "bullish". The information background of the past day was rather poor. You can even say that there was no news. There were no new statements by Donald Trump on coronavirus, there were no speeches by epidemiologist Anthony Fauci, there is no new data about the "cold war" between China and America, only talk about the vaccine does not leave the markets. Let me remind you that Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a few days ago the registration of the world's first vaccine against COVID-2019, which immediately prompted the American President to criticize himself with all his might. America can't afford to be second in something after Russia, and Donald Trump needs a vaccine like air. It is, according to many experts, his only chance for re-election. Thus, I believe that in the next month, the US President can declare the registration of a vaccine, which will also be criticized by all doctors and epidemiologists, since it will also not pass all the necessary tests and checks. Unfortunately, Trump needs the vaccine to solve his political issues. In fact, the same situation is now with the epidemic, which in the United States no one is trying to stop with the help of a nationwide quarantine. Although various restrictive measures are in effect in almost all states.

EUR/USD – 4H.

On the 4-hour chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a new rebound from the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.1729) and began the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). However, above the previous peaks of about 1.1909, bull traders are unlikely to be able to easily gain a foothold. The bullish divergence of the CCI indicator also worked in favor of the beginning of growth. Fixing the pair's rate at 127.2% will allow traders to expect a fall in the direction of the upward trend line.

EUR/USD – Daily.

On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair returned to the Fibo level of 261.8% (1.1825). With a large blue rectangle, I indicated that there is now a high probability of movement in the side corridor. Thus, you can also resume working with the pair after you leave this rectangle.

EUR/USD – Weekly.

On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation over the "narrowing triangle", which now allows us to count on further growth of the euro currency, which can be very strong and long-term.

Overview of fundamentals:

On August 12, the report on industrial production in the EU showed a smaller increase in June than traders had expected. And American inflation, on the contrary, accelerated. And both reports did not impress traders, who simply did not pay attention to them, as the pair was in the process of growth all day.

News calendar for the United States and the European Union:

US - number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 GMT).

On August 13, the calendar of America contains not the most important report on applications for unemployment benefits. Yesterday, traders did not work out much more important reports. Thus, today the information background can be considered zero.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

The latest COT report was very predictable. Given the fact that in general, the euro currency continues to grow recently and so far the dollar is only capable of small corrections, it is obvious that large traders continued to increase long-contracts. During the reporting week, their number increased by a little over 19 thousand. At the same time, the "Non-commercial" group also got rid of short contracts, thus showing that their mood is becoming even more "bullish". Thus, the advantage of the euro over the dollar remains large, and the advantage of longs over shorts in the hands of speculators remains large. Based on this, it follows that the COT report does not yet give any signals about the possible end of the growth of the Euro currency. This week, the euro currency has slightly worsened its position, however, only Friday's report will show whether the mood of the major players has changed.

Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:

Today, I recommend cautious purchases of the currency pair with the goal of 1.1908, as the next rebound from the level of 1.1729 was made. I recommend selling the pair with the goal of a trend line if the close is made below the level of 1.1729.

Terms:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.