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Hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair
We also have an upward trend for the currency pair, which means that now we need to strictly trade upward (buy, buy-positions). However, the pound sterling is increasingly showing signs of readiness for the end of the upward trend, so we advise you to pay close attention to the upward trend line, which is precisely responsible for determining the trend. If the price consolidates below it, it will mean that it is more and more difficult for buyers to keep the initiative in their hands for the nth time. This means the market is preparing for new sales of the pound/dollar pair. However, as long as the quotes do not go below the trend line, we do not recommend selling the pair.
From the scheduled reports, we can note the same report on orders for durable goods in the United States on Monday. Since this report will affect all pairs that have the US dollar. The offers for novice traders are the same. If at least three of the four indicators of orders are higher than the forecast values, the GBP/USD pair may begin to fall, which will mean the growth of the US dollar (for one pound sterling, the market will offer less and less dollars, which means that the US currency is strengthening against the pound). But no reports are scheduled for Monday in the UK. At the same time, we recommend that novice traders carefully monitor news feeds for news concerning the rate of spread of the coronavirus epidemic in the United States. The longer the current disease levels of 60-80,000 cases per day(or higher) persist, the higher the probability that the pair will continue to grow. You should also pay attention to reports of rallies and protests in the United States. The longer they continue, the more likely it is that the pound will continue to get more expensive. However, if the pair's quotes are consolidated below the trend line, the growth will not be relevant for some time. The market likes to frequently adjust on Mondays, that is, go against the trend. Therefore, the reversal of the MACD indicator down will indicate just such a scenario on the first trading day of the week.
The following scenarios are possible on July 27:
1) If the MACD indicator turns down on Monday before morning, it will mean that the pair has started a correction and it is worth waiting for new purchases. In this case, traders are asked to wait for the MACD to turn up and, if the price remains above the trend line, open buy orders with the goals of 1.2810 and 1.2860.
2) But sales, from our point of view, can be considered only after consolidating the price below the trend line. In this case, the trend will change to a downward trend and the initiative will go to the sellers. The targets are 1.2686 and 1.2636.
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly affect the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners in the forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.