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EUR / USD
On July 21, the EUR/USD pair gained about 80 pips. Thus, the instrument remains within the framework of the construction of the assumed wave 3 in 5 in C in B, which takes a very extended form and can complete its construction near the 200.0% Fibonacci level. A successful attempt to break through the 200.0% level will indicate that the markets are ready for new purchases of the euro, and the whole wave 5 in C in B will take on an even more extended form.
Fundamental component:
The Euro currency was still pleased with the results of the EU summit, albeit with a great delay. A strong increase in the instrument quotes began yesterday afternoon, thanks to which the pair approached the 200.0% Fibonacci level. However, it was not only the summit that influenced the mood of the markets. Donald Trump, the American president, recently decided to resume briefings at the White House on coronavirus, noting that the Americans will be better informed in this way. However, Trump's very first speech was overshadowed. The US President said that before the epidemiological situation in the country improves, things are likely to get even worse. Let me remind you that America ranks first in the world in the number of COVID-2019 diseases and in the number of deaths from this virus. Therefore, when the President of the United States declares that the situation will worsen even more, this is really bad news. He has urged all Americans to wear masks, recognizing that this remedy has certain positive effects. At the same time, the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress, Nancy Pelosi said: "I think in today's speech, the president, having declared the need to wear masks, admitted mistakes." And she called the coronavirus "Trump virus." It will be really hard for the US president to convince the Americans to vote for him in November. However, health problems still come first now, or should be. Therefore, America needs to tighten quarantine measures again. However, Donald Trump believes that further quarantine will "kill" the country's economy. In addition, he hopes for the imminent appearance of a vaccine against COVID-19.
General conclusions and recommendations:
The euro/dollar pair presumably continues to build an upward wave C in B. Therefore, I recommend buying the instrument with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.1570 and 1.1827, which equates to 200.0% and 261.8% Fibonacci. for each MACD "up" signal counting on the continuation of wave 5 in C in B.
GBP / USD
On July 21, the GBP/USD pair gained about 80 pips. Wave 2 in 5 is still considered completed, and so, the instrument is currently continuing to build the intended wave 3 in 5. Based on this, I believe that the increase in quotes will resume (the decline in quotes began today) with the goals located around the 76.4% and 100.0 Fibonacci levels. The entire wave 5 can take a very extended form.
Fundamental component:
There is very little news in the UK at the start of a new week. It was reported this morning that the United Kingdom and the United States want to sign a trade agreement, however, it is still unknown when this will happen and at least when the negotiations will begin. Thus, for now, this information is worth nothing. As of today, there are no events or economic reports in the UK and USA. There will be a speech by Christine Lagarde, who is likely to comment on the results achieved at the EU summit.
General conclusions and recommendations:
The pound/dollar pair has made the current wave counting very complicated, which now suggests building an upward wave. Therefore, I recommend buying the instrument now for each MACD signal "up" with targets located near the levels of 1.2816 and 1.2990, which equates to the peak of wave 3 or C and 100.0% Fibonacci.