FX.co ★ Hot forecast and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on July 21, 2020

The lack of any macroeconomic data forces investors to switch to other news sources. Mainly of a political nature. Fortunately, the summit of the heads of the European Union is being delayed, and this event constantly presents new information. At first, the delay in negotiations, and almost their failure, was an extremely negative factor. However, yesterday morning it became known that the negotiations have moved from a dead point, and the formation of a stabilisation fund was approved. This is what started the process of strengthening the single European currency. At the end of the trading day, it became known that the parties have finally reached an agreement. So there were enough reasons for the euro to grow. However, there are two important points to note. First, the euro's growth was quite modest, and it is clear that it rests on a kind of ceiling. This indicates that the single currency is clearly overbought. Second, although the countries of the EU have agreed on the size of the fund to be used for the recovery of the European economy, which has been affected by the coronavirus epidemic, there are many unresolved questions about the mechanisms for its use. In particular, Germany and France, along with a number of other countries, are in favor of allocating funds in the form of loans. Other countries, such as Hungary, Italy and Spain, insist that countries can use these funds at their discretion, and without any obligations. So the negotiations may still reach an impasse. How these negotiations take place will determine the mood of investors. But in any case, it is worth paying attention to the obvious overheating of the euro. So the potential for its growth, even if the negotiations are successfully concluded, which will happen in the end, is extremely limited.

From the point of view of technical analysis, an upward sentiment is visible, but it is still not enough, the quote continues to move in the variable range of 1.1400/1.1465, where pressure arises on a systematic basis, which leads to the reduction of long positions and, as a fact, the price reversal.

This type of fluctuation has been going on for more than 80 hours, which indicates the market participants' high interest in the existing process.

In terms of volatility, you can see a slight slowdown, which will end with a breakout of the current range.

Looking at the trading chart in general terms (daily period), you can see that the resistance area where the quote is located has been repeatedly confirmed in history, and it is an important price level in the market.

It can be assumed that if the price is fixed below 1.1400, there may be a downward move in the direction of 1.1380-1.1350. Otherwise, the price fluctuation within the 1.1400/1.1460 range will continue.

From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments on the minute and hour periods signal a sale, due to an attempt to adjust the price. The daily interval, as before, signals a purchase, reflecting the overall movement of the clock.