FX.co ★ Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 11. The collapse of Donald Trump's hegemony.

4-hour timeframe

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 96.5416

The EUR/USD currency pair continues its upward movement, which is very difficult to justify fundamentally. In fact, there are so many events happening in America right now that any event can negatively affect the demand for the dollar. Every day, all the news feeds are literally bursting with messages related to Donald Trump. Therefore, it is quite possible that traders simply avoid investing in a currency whose issuing country is currently experiencing a severe political crisis. Yes, it is a political crisis, and it began from the first day as Trump took office as President of the United States. However, the problem was not that "Trump was not allowed to work by the Democrats" (as the US leader himself said). The problem is Trump's very personality. We have repeatedly said that Donald Trump is a great businessman, but as the leader of the nation – an unsuitable candidate. The US President for almost 4 years of his work managed to quarrel with almost all the country's partners. Those who are stronger were able to engage in a skirmish with Washington (China, the European Union). Those who are weaker just made decisions about the duties of the White House in silence. However, the US President could not understand that the more enemies he has inside and outside the country, the more likely it is that these enemies will act against him and will not allow him to jointly win the elections in 2020. This is what we are seeing now. Every action of Trump is literally under the microscope of the media and television. Because Trump managed to throw mud at all American journalists, all media outlets, and all TV channels (except those who openly support him). However, microscopes are not needed in the case of Trump. His actions are so obvious that there is no need to look for hidden meaning or hidden motivation in them. For example, rallies began 2 weeks ago in the United States, and Trump's American population "from the most beautiful, who wants to quickly complete the quarantine and return to work" turned into "a herd of limitless people who need to be calmed with the help of the army". The fact that the rallies are mostly peaceful (which is not prohibited by US laws), Trump did not care. The most important thing is that the rallies disturbed the peace in the country, and people, instead of raising the economy from the ruins, were engaged in useless activities. Moreover, after the Pentagon refused to resort to using the army, Donald Trump immediately wanted to fire US Defense Secretary Mark Esper. This is stated by the American media, in particular The Wall Street Journal. It is reported that only after long negotiations, Trump's advisers dissuaded him from such actions. And this is Trump's policy in everything. Those who do not obey him should be dismissed. If you can't fire them, then you need to throw mud, accuse them of anything, and impose sanctions. It's as simple as five cents. And when the US leader at the end of his term lags behind his rival Joe Biden by 14%, despite the fact that Biden himself did almost nothing to get such a high rating, Trump says that a war was waged against him from the very first day as President and they say everyone does not like him, although it was he who raised the country's economy to an all-time high. Here, by the way, there is also one very significant omission. Under Trump, the country's economy did show growth (before the pandemic and crisis), but this growth began under Barack Obama. In other words, it cannot be said that it was Trump who launched a new economic program that brought the US economy to a fundamentally new level. He only continued to build on Obama's success.

Well, the situation with "coronavirus" is worthy of anthologies. This is the best guide on how not to rule a country. We do not in any way claim that China intentionally released the COVID-2019 virus. We don't know who designed it or if it was developed by people at all. However, if you look only at the facts, they are as follows: Trump has been at war with China for two years; it was from China that the "coronavirus" broke out, which tore the US economy to shreds (we very much doubt that the unemployment rate really fell to 13% instead of rising to 20%), and also exposed the US President in the most unsightly light. He put it up and continues to put it up, as Trump and his followers almost daily accuse China of all the deadly sins, but have never yet provided any evidence. The President of the United States from the very first day underestimated the virus, made statements that made doctors around the world stand on end, after which the White House stopped sanctifying the topic of the epidemic in the United States. For more than a month, Trump has not held any briefings regarding the epidemic. The country's chief epidemiologist, Anthony Fauci, who we used to see on TV almost every day and who allegedly went into self-isolation a month ago, has stopped speaking. Meanwhile, according to the Johns Hopkins Institute, the COVID-2019 virus continues to spread quietly across the United States. There is still no sign of any reduction in the rate of infection. If the contagion curves in Europe have gone sideways, which indicates a drop in the number of new infected with the virus, the same curve in the United States is directed at an angle of 45 degrees and does not change its direction. 20 states recorded a sharp increase in cases in the last 7-10 days. Moreover, some TV companies report that many states underestimate the statistics on cases. First of all, we mean the states where the growth of diseases was recorded a week ago. As well as the most populous states – California, New York, Texas, and Florida. Well, we can only guess how many new cases of infection the states will get thanks to two weeks of rallies and protests. Even now, the Johns Hopkins Institute reports a sharp increase in death forecasts for the next few months, but the country's quarantine continues to weaken. And at the same time, Donald Trump is going to hold campaign rallies across the country, as this is almost his only chance to raise his political ratings now. To be honest, we don't think Joe Biden even needs to do anything right now. Trump himself will achieve a victory for the Democrat in the election. And, of course, it should be noted that Trump is opposed not only by the population of the country but also by officials. It's not even worth talking about the Democrats, but even the Republicans themselves are starting to speak out against Trump.

The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of June 11 is 105 points. Thus, the indicator value is characterized as "high" due to the last five trading days. We expect the pair to move between 1.1251 and 1.1461 levels today. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a new round of downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1353

S2 – 1.1230

S3 – 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1475

R2 – 1.1597

R3 – 1.1719

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair resumed its upward movement. Thus, long positions with the goals of 1.1461 and 1.1597 remain relevant at this time. It is recommended to keep them open until the beginning of a new round of corrective movement. It is recommended to return to selling the pair not before fixing the price below the moving average line with the first goal of 1.1108.