FX.co ★ Overview for EUR/USD on June 10. Commitment of Traders report: major players continue to open long-positions. FOMC meeting results may have no effect

EUR/USD - 1H.

Good afternoon, dear traders! On June 9, the EUR/USD pair resumed its uptrend on the H1 chart, although earlier it had completed consolidation under an upward trend channel. Thus, traders have simply ignored the sell signal that was formed yesterday. This means that the bullish sentiment still prevails in the market. Yesterday, there was no important information or economic reports from the US and the European Union. The data on GDP in the eurozone was issued in the morning, and the growth of the quotes began in the afternoon. There were also no important statements announced by Donald Trump, no updates on the trade conflict between the US and China, as well as on the situation in Hong Kong. Nevertheless, the euro, as well as the pound, began to rise again. Today, traders will be mostly focused on the FOMC meeting. Investors do not expect any changes in monetary policy in June. However, the Fed may surprise everyone and announce another program to support the US economy or expand the existing one.

EUR/USD - 4H.

On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair rebounded, so that the euro extended gains. Earlier, the pair was holding below the level of correction at 76.4% - 1.1294, thus raising hopes for a slight drop. The pair closed above the Fibonacci level of 76.4%, supporting the euro. The euro/dollar pair will most probably resume its growth up to the level of correction at 100.0% - 1.1496. None of the indicators is showing any divergences today. However, on such a strong trend, they usually do not work as expected.

EUR/USD: Daily chart

On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair consolidated above the level of correction at 127.2% - 1.1261 and continued the uptrend towards the next target at 161.8% - 1.1405.

EUR/USD: Weekly chart

On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the bottom of the ascending triangle pattern. This means that the pair may still move upwards to the level of 1.1600 which is the upper line of the triangle. Given the euro's rally over the past few days, this target can be reached as soon as this week.

Overview of economic news:

On June 9, the EU released the data on GDP for the first quarter. The GDP contracted less than it was expected. Apart from that, there was no more important news during the day. Traders, however, were not discouraged by he data and continued to buy the European currency.

Economic Calendar for USA and EU:

USA - Consumer Price Index (12-30 GMT).

USA - Consumer price index excluding food and energy prices (12-30 GMT).

USA - FOMC decision on the key interest rate (18-00 GMT).

USA - FOMC Statement (18-00 GMT).

USA - FOMC Economic Projections (18-00 GMT).

USA - FOMC Press Conference (18-00 GMT).

On June 10, the economic calendar is full of events in the United States. However, the FOMC press conference and the US report on inflation rate in May will be of most interest to traders. It is also possible that traders will not pay attention to all these events and will simply continue to sell the dollar.

COT report (Commitments of traders):

Over the past week, the European currency has shown persistent growth. So, traders reasonably expected an increased number of long-positions in the Non-commercial group. However, it turned to be just the opposite. According to new COT report, during the reporting week traders were trying to get rid of short positions, which had the same result as when accumulating long contracts. Thus, the gap between the numbers of long and short contracts in the hands of large speculators for the reporting week has widened, which goes well with what is happening on Forex now. I should also point out the increased activity of major players as the total number of open contracts surged over the week by 70 thousand. This week, the euro is still in high demand.

Forecast on EUR/USD and trading recommendations:

Today, I do not recommend selling the euro, as yesterday a strong bearish signal was ignored. I would rather recommend opening new buy positions on the pair with a target at 1.1496, since the price closed above the level of 76.4% on the H4 chart. You should also keep in mind the Stop Loss levels.

Definitions:

"Non-commercial" refers to major market players: banks, hedge funds, and investment funds, private and large investors.

"Commercial" refers to commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, and companies that buy currency not for speculative profits, but for ensuring current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" refers to small traders; usually they do not have any significant influence on the price.