FX.co ★ Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD for September 30, 2021

EUR/USD failed to hold short-term key-support at 1.1676 which has opened up the downside. The first support to look for is currently being tested at 1.1603. This support marks the channel support and the low of Circle wave 4, which is a very common target for corrections. Therefore we should look for signs of a possible corrective low near here, but we will need a break above resistance at 1.1756 to confirm that wave 2 has completed and wave 3 higher is unfolding.

That said, we also need to be aware that as long as the former support at 1.1676 is able to act as a cap EUR/USD could break below support at 1.1603 and continue lower to 1.1494 and maybe even the 61.8% corrective target of wave 1 at 1.1291 before turning up again.